The Model Isn’t Always Right… But It’s Never Wrong

Matchweek 33 ends with bad news and good news. The bad news is none of our bets hit, meaning our £102 bankroll, coupled with a total portfolio stake of £6, is now below starting level

The good news is that there were a few promotions on the bookmaker that I use and I was able to claw back most of this in free spins, meaning we’re actually just 2p below our initial bankroll

Still, it’s a shame when you are able to amass a lead and then bottle it

Just ask any Arsenal fan

Brighton v Spurs

I saw this bet and thought it was basically free money. Just goes to show, when a team has 45% chance of winning, it means over half the time they don’t

The 55% hit and we were unable to capitalise. We used sixteenth kelly for this game, owing to the fact that the odds weren’t too far off evens, and so there wasn’t much point going higher, as the per unit stake wasn’t really going to be worth the risk

In that respect, we won

Aston Villa v Sunderland

This was our value play of the week. The bookmakers were offering an insane price on the black cats to win, but it was the villains that remained heroic and took the game

An early goal that turned into a 2-goal lead made it seem our bet was dead in the water. Though Sunderland fought back, equalising at 2-2 and then again at 3-3, the final and winning goal went to Aston Villa

Sunderland’s impressive form rating, compared to a wobbly Villa, was the main reason behind this bet. The fact Villa not only bottled a 2-0 lead, but had to nick the lead a second and third time for victory shows that our theory was right, just on the day the percentages didn’t fall our way

Remember: the model isn’t always right, but it’s never wrong

Leeds v Wolves

Brighton beating Spurs and a tense game at Villa Park were expected outcomes and we ranked them as high and medium confidence respectively. Wolves beating Leeds was not one of our high conviction plays, but at 55% EV, it’s tough to ignore

Did we get a bit greedy with this?

Eh, I would say: no

The theme of Matchweek 33 was conservative portfolio construction based on form analysis.

Backing Wolves to beat Leeds this far into the season, with the recently-promoted home team making it clear that the Premier League is, indeed, their home, may not be conservative, I think the form consideration moved the needle sufficiently to make this an interesting bet

We marked this as low confidence from the start, but when you expect an outcome to hit around 30% of the time and only need 18% to breakeven

Well.. You only need to be confident in the model

And I am. For all the evidence you need, just look at how close we’ve remained to breakeven since starting this challenge. While it isn’t a huge sample, I’d wager (ha) most bettors would have spunked the majority of their bankroll if doing this blind

The model works. Trust the process.

Matchweek 34 will be uploaded on Tuesday 21 April