For a review of last week, see here

We start this week with a balance of 100.88, thanks to another round of free spins on casino games offered by the bookmakers

We’ll edge out as much value and cashback as we possibly can. Look after the pennies, and the pounds will take care of themselves.

Let’s see how we’ll be putting our pounds to use this week..

We’ve got four bets this week on three games. We’re remaining conservative on our solid play of the week: Fulham v Aston Villa, with a reduced quarter kelly stake on the stronger away team to nab it

Also in theme with last week, we’re betting on Wolves and Spurs, with our thesis coming down to form analysis and a hedge on a draw. Similarly, we’re also hoping for an upset in the Liverpool match

No longshots this week, as we decide to pass up a huge EV on the Burnley win against Manchester City (yeah, yeah; I know. that’s why I’m avoiding it)

Fulham v Aston Villa

Aston Villa are the stronger team in this matchup and we’re backing them at +16% EV

My model suggests Villa win 45% of the time, while bookmakers undervalue them with 38% chance of winning; they’ve got Fulham as the favourites on this one

Fulham have had a very middle of the road season; a few hiccups early on, but they’ve broadly steadied the ship and have won my personal award of the most vanilla team in the league at the moment

Put it this way: If Fulham were a spice, they’d be flour

Aston Villa, while not exactly running hot like a Carolina reaper chilli, have been a bit more volatile as of late. They’re higher on the Caspian scale, but rank lower on form factor with 3.9/10 compared to Fulham’s 4.6/10

This mainly stems from a decline from their heights at the start of the season where they came out all guns blazing. Fulham have been very steady around the mean, but while a floor ELO of about 1,801 supports them, they’ve been unable to smash the ceiling of 1,822

Villa have been able to do that in the span of two games, and they’re currently sitting at their floor. Mean reversion would suggest a victory this match

Due to diverging form, I’m putting a quarter Kelly stake on this

Liverpool v Crystal Palace

Palace’s last game was home against West Ham and were unable to finish them off, despite finding the back of the net with a goal that was eventually disallowed

Palace have upset Liverpool in the past. While at the time Liverpool weren’t in as difficult a situation as they are now, it was also a different Palace side

At 51% EV, with the bookies implying a probability of 16% and our model showing that Palace win this a quarter of the time, we have a very meaningful edge

Wolves v Spurs

As with last week, we’re betting on Wolves with our theory being that the market is underpricing their relatively better form in recent weeks

While last week this was a longshot, as they were against an improving Leeds side, the roles are reversed in this matchup for two reasons that go very strongly in our favour

  1. Wolves have a higher form rating (WOL: 5/10; stable TOT 3/10; declining)
  2. Wolves are at home this week

Last week they were against a team in a higher ELO band with a better and stable form

This week they’re out for blood. West Ham gaining a point against Palace means Wolves are now guaranteed for relegation, but they’ll be looking for a win in this game as if to say, “sure, we suck, but at least we’re not those guys.” Playing at home is going to give them that oomph they need to nick this and I think our true EV is even higher than 47%, as the 35% chance of Wolves winning this is underestimated in my view

And the thing is.. I don’t expect Spurs to hold their own in this one

🦔 HEDGE: Wolves and Spurs to Draw

Our model identifies a draw at +6% EV, which isn’t a whole lot

However, it provides a perfect hedge; we now go from hitting 35% of the time to hitting over 50% of the time

Bets We’re Avoiding

🎰 Burnley to Beat Man City

I know. Pep would never let this happen. The unbreakable cosmic force, an influence stronger than the binding of quarks, that requires Arsenal to bottle the league would never let this happen.

Look, here’s the thing; Manchester City need to win this game. They’re against a significantly weaker team (this is a Band 8 matchup) and have an opportunity to make a statement in the league.

There is an insanely high EV associated with this of 230%, which sounds way too good to give up, even in the face of everything above.

Put another way: if I told you that if you give me $1 and 80% of the time you lose $5, but 20% of the time you get $17.. you’d take that bet, right?

Of course you would

I’m not going to take this bet this time. The stakes are far too high for City. Although there’s 20% chance Burnley nick this, this band has 36 games in its entire sample. That’s across five seasons… 1.7% of all matches

###

💼 Portfolio Summary

Bet Odds EV% Sizing % of Bankroll Type
Wolves win @ Spurs 4.27 +47% Quarter-Kelly 3% SOLID
Wolves / Spurs Draw 3.89 +6% Eighth-Kelly 1.5% SOLID
Crystal Palace win @ Liverpool 6.21 +51% Quarter-Kelly 3% VALUE
Aston Villa win @ Fulham 2.59 +16% Quarter-Kelly 3% SOLID
TOTAL — — — 10.5% —

The Bigger Picture

New bankroll: £100.88 Note: The maths doesn’t exactly work; the bookies I use to bet have been doing a free spins promo and I’ve been making a couple of quid here or there and I’ve not separated the wins from my football bets. I like to think of it as a tax refund

📈 The Bigger Picture

Week Starting Bets Wins Staked P/L Ending
MW18 £100.00 6 2 £16.00 +£3.55 £103.55
MW19 £103.55 6 1 £10.00 -£6.18 £97.37
MW20 £97.37 4 1 £11.00 -£6.62 £90.75
MW21 £90.75 5 2 £9.72 +£2.00 £92.75
MW22 £92.75 6 2 £10.50 -£0.80 £91.95
MW23 £91.95 5 2 £9.00 +£0.50 £92.45
MW24 £92.45 7 2 £11.86 -£2.17 £92.85
MW25 £92.85 5 2 £11.50 +£3.60 £96.45
MW26 £96.45 5 1 £7.00 -£2.85 £93.60
MW27 £93.60 4 2 £8.50 +£1.85 £95.45
MW28 £95.45 6 1 £8.50 +£1.38 £96.83
MW29–30 £96.83 — — — — £96.38
MW31 £96.38 5 3 £4.50 + FB +£7.85 £104.23
MW32 £104.23 3 1 £6.00 -£3.40 £102.88
MW33 £102.88 3 0 £6.00 -£6.00 £96.88
MW34 £96.88 + 4.00 (free spins) 3 -      
Cumulative — 80 26 ~£138 +£0.88