Matchweek 33
🧠 This week’s best bets
TL;DR: We were in the negative last week, but remain above our starting bankroll at £102.88. MW32 was a conservative week with just three bets; one delivered. We avoided riskier bets that would have cashed, but in the long run we’d be costing ourselves money. A conservative approach continues this week. Narratives are driving price, but when you read between the lines, there’s some gold buried beneath. We’re banking on Brighton to further add to Spurs’ woes, and taking incredibly underpriced, yet in form, chance on Sunderland against Villa, and a longshot on relegation-fodder Wolves
See for yourself: Odds Calculator
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📊 Matchweek 32 review
One winner from three bets
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool / Fulham U2.5 | 2.6 | £1.00 | WON | +£1.26 |
| Aston Villa win vs Nottingham Forest | 2.6 | £2.50 | LOST | -£2.50 |
| Everton win vs Brentford | 3.4 | £2.50 | ❌ LOST | -£2.50 |
| TOTAL | — | £6.00 | 1/3 | -3.40 |
Liverpool 2 - 0 Fulham: I only started watching this from the second half, so it was a pretty anxious affair for me. I was happy to see Liverpool calm down around 75’, which allowed my U2.5 to sail through.
Aston Villa 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest: An own goal by Forest made it seem this would hit, but an equaliser a couple of minutes later meant by the second half we were back to square one. No action in the second half so our bet died. We had an opportunity to back the stronger team with +EV against a team relatively struggling; it didn’t bank, but we’re grateful for these bets when they appear
Brentford 2 - 2 Everton: An early penalty and yellow card for Pickford suggested this bet was going to struggle. Though Everton fought back, a second equaliser in the 90’ minute meant it was tough to nick this one for us
New bankroll: £102.88 Note: The maths doesn’t exactly work; the bookies I use to bet have been doing a free spins promo and I’ve been making a couple of pence here or there and I’ve not separated the wins from my football bets. I like to think of it as a tax refund
📈 The bigger picture
| Week | Starting | Bets | Wins | Staked | P/L | Ending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW18 | £100.00 | 6 | 2 | £16.00 | +£3.55 | £103.55 |
| MW19 | £103.55 | 6 | 1 | £10.00 | -£6.18 | £97.37 |
| MW20 | £97.37 | 4 | 1 | £11.00 | -£6.62 | £90.75 |
| MW21 | £90.75 | 5 | 2 | £9.72 | +£2.00 | £92.75 |
| MW22 | £92.75 | 6 | 2 | £10.50 | -£0.80 | £91.95 |
| MW23 | £91.95 | 5 | 2 | £9.00 | +£0.50 | £92.45 |
| MW24 | £92.45 | 7 | 2 | £11.86 | -£2.17 | £92.85 |
| MW25 | £92.85 | 5 | 2 | £11.50 | +£3.60 | £96.45 |
| MW26 | £96.45 | 5 | 1 | £7.00 | -£2.85 | £93.60 |
| MW27 | £93.60 | 4 | 2 | £8.50 | +£1.85 | £95.45 |
| MW28 | £95.45 | 6 | 1 | £8.50 | +£1.38 | £96.83 |
| MW29–30 | £96.83 | — | — | — | — | £96.38 |
| MW31 | £96.38 | 5 | 3 | £4.50 + FB | +£7.85 | £104.23 |
| MW32 | 104.23 | 3 | 1 | £6.00 | -£3.40 | £102.88 |
| Cumulative | — | 77 | 26 | ~£132 | +£2.88 |
🎯 This week’s theme: Form Analysis
We’ve got four bets this week; one more than last, though we still are focusing on a conservative approach. There’s some solid value to be had in these matchups where teams, by ELO, are pretty reasonably matched, but when you consider recent form, the price looks even better
💰 SOLID PICK: Brighton to Beat Spurs
The Bet: Brighton away win @ 2.30 (43.5% implied) Model Probability: 45.2% (fair odds: 2.21) Expected Value: +8.6% Stake: Sixteenth-Kelly Confidence: High
112 ELO points separate these teams. Brighton have had a string of good games lately and have bounced back from a low this time last year when they were at 1,816; they’ve been putting in the shift and a stable 5.2/10 form rating shows this.
Spurs, in contrast, have the worst form rating in the league at 2.8/10 and have dropped over 100 ELO points
There is not much juice to be had from this, but at 8% EV, and adjusting for form I think we can remove even the 10% venue adjustment and probably some more; taking us to around +20% EV on this bet
Placing quarter kelly bet on this. It’s very safe, but the odds aren’t hue and so we’re not going to be risking as much when the multiplier of return is lower
🎰 LONGSHOT: Wolves to Beat Leeds
The Bet: Wolves away win @ 5.49 (18.2% implied) Model Probability: 28.6% (fair odds: 3.50) Expected Value: +58.8% Stake: Sixteenth-Kelly Confidence: Low
I’m not hyped about this bet, but with 57% EV I think there is some opportunity to be had as the market over values Leeds (and rightly so; they’ve been putting in the hard work) while Wolves’ relegation fodder status is driving a price gap to exploit
I don’t expect to cash this, but Wolves at a 6/10 form makes me think this will be a tighter battle than we think
That’s why we only bet sixteenth Kelly, because, if we’re being told we win 18% of the time but we’re expecting closer to 30%.. Well, that’s value, init..
💎 Sunderland to Beat Aston Villa
The Bet: Sunderland away win @ 5.25 (19.0% implied) Model Probability: 23.7% (fair odds: 4.21) Expected Value: +24.6% Stake: Quarter-Kelly Confidence: Medium
Aston Villa were the wunderkinds of the early season, but they’re not quire at the heights they were. If I had the chance to bet on them to beat Nottingham Forest around Matchweek 5 - 15 then I would have jumped at it, but they couldn’t even deliver that for me last week
Bad ebening
This time I’m exacting revenge and hoping one of the 24/100 times that Sunderland beats Villa will come this weekend.
Note: Don’t bet on emotion - this is noise in the model and should be ignored
Sunderland have an impressive 7/10 form; this is another team that I enjoyed backing at the start of the season, and it appears they’re maintaining momentum and that’s why we’re backing them against a struggling Villa.
I think this hits more than our anticipated 24%
📋 Portfolio summary
| Bet | Odds | EV% | Sizing | % of Bankroll | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win @ Spurs | 2.30 | +8.6% | Sixteenth-Kelly | 1% | SOLID |
| Wolves win @ Leeds | 5.49 | +58.8% | Sixteenth-Kelly | 1.5% | LONGSHOT |
| Sunderland win @ Villa | 5.25 | +24.6% | Quarter-Kelly | 2.5% | VALUE |
| TOTAL | — | — | — | 5% | — |
Total exposure sits at 5%, which might be our lowest since we started the challenge
All probabilities calculated using 5+ seasons of Premier League data (2,000+ matches). ELO ratings updated weekly. Model performance tracked publicly at ferret-stack.github.io.