Premier League Odds Calculator

ELO-based model analyzing Premier League matches to identify value bets. Updated weekly with the latest match data and bookmaker odds.

Last updated: Loading... | Total matches analyzed: 0

Select Match

Home Team

Away Team

Home Team

Rank: -

Form: -

ELO Difference

Band -

Based on - games

Away Team

Rank: -

Form: -

ELO Progression

From: To:

Value Bet Threshold: ℹ 5% 📋 Disclaimer

Match Outcome Probabilities (ELO Band Analysis)

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Total Goals (Historical %)

Over 0.5 -

Over 1.5 -

Over 2.5 -

Over 3.5 -

Over 4.5 -

BTTS & Booking Points

Both Teams to Score

BTTS - Yes -

BTTS - No -

Expected Booking Points

Band Avg -

Home Avg -

Away Avg -

              Expected
              -
            

Head to Head Record

Select teams to view H2H

Poisson Score Distribution

Upcoming Fixtures

How It Works

📊 Data Collection

Python script scrapes match data from Premier League website weekly, including goals, cards, and all match statistics.

🎯 ELO Ratings

Each team's strength is measured using ELO ratings that update after every match based on results and opponent strength.

📈 Probability Calculation

Historical data grouped by ELO difference bands shows outcome probabilities for similar rating gaps.

💰 Value Identification

Compare model probabilities with bookmaker odds. When our probability exceeds implied odds, we've found +EV value.

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