⚽ Odds Calculator Disclaimer 📊

Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Statistics

The Beautiful Game Meets Beautiful Code

This is a pet project of mine that began in 2022 and it exists because I'm a massive nerd who loves three things: football, statistics, and that sweet dopamine hit of finding a bet that the bookies have undervalued (ha, idiots!).

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This isn't a "I built a betting model and now I'm rich" story.

Nor will it make you rich.

This is about the journey of a self-taught coder who got obsessed with the idea that football, for all its beautiful chaos, might just be a tiny bit predictable.

And if it is? Well, that's where the fun begins, my friends.

What started as a humble spreadsheet has evolved into a full-blown statistical analysis engine. Every week, my model wakes up, stretches its digital limbs, and goes hunting across the Premier League website for fresh data. Goals, cards, possession stats – if it happened on the pitch, my script knows about it.

🍺 FAQ: Or "Things My Mates Ask Me Down the Pub"

If I had mates to go to the pub with

What does your model actually DO?

Glad you asked! Every week, this beast of a system:

Scrapes match data from the Premier League website (legally, don't worry) – we're talking goals, cards, the lot

Downloads ELO ratings from the brilliant folks at ClubELO who've been tracking team strengths since forever

Groups historical matches into "ELO bands" – basically asking "when teams were THIS far apart in strength, what usually happened?"

Calculates probabilities using actual historical data – none of this "I reckon Arsenal will win" nonsense

Fetches bookmaker odds through public APIs

Compares everything to find those juicy value bets where my model thinks something's more likely than the bookies do

Generates lovely JSON files that make my website update automatically because I'm too lazy to do it manually

The philosophy is simple: If teams with a 200-point ELO difference have historically resulted in home wins 67% of the time, and the bookies are offering odds that imply only 55%...

...well, that's what we call value, innit?

What's this ELO thing you keep banging on about?

ELO isn't an acronym (despite what it looks like) – it's named after Arpad Elo, an absolute legend who created this rating system for chess. The concept is wonderfully simple:

Every team starts with a rating (usually around 1500)
Beat a strong team? Your rating goes up loads
Beat a weak team? Your rating goes up a bit
Lose to a weak team? Your rating plummets faster than Manchester United's title hopes
Lose to a strong team? Meh, expected that, rating drops slightly

Think of it like a constantly updating "how good is this team RIGHT NOW" score.

It's dynamic, it's mathematical, and it doesn't give a toss what Gary Lineker thinks, which, let's be honest, is probably for the best.

The beauty is that ELO self-corrects. If a team goes on a mad run (looking at you, Leicester in 2016), their ELO shoots up. Hit a rough patch (hello, Chelsea in 2022)? It drops...

...it's like the stock market, but for football teams.

Fun Fact: You can actually buy shares in Manchester United (although, I wouldn't)

And Poisson? Ain't that a fish?

Named after the mathematician, Simeon Denis Poisson (English translation: Simon Dennis Fish).

The Poisson distribution is this brilliant bit of statistics that predicts rare events. And let's face it, scoring a goal in football is pretty rare...

...just ask any West Ham fan.

Here's the deal: If we know a team averages 1.5 goals per match, Poisson can tell us:

~22% Probability of scoring 0 goals

~33% Probability of scoring 1 goal

~25% Probability of scoring 2 goals

~20% Probability of scoring 3+ goals

Now multiply those probabilities for both teams, and boom! You've got a full matrix of potential scorelines.

The model uses this to generate those fancy score matrices you see on the site.

⚖️ The "Don't Sue Me" Section

This model is for educational purposes only. Past results are not guaranteed predictors of future performance. Et cetera, et cetera...

Can I get rich using this calculator?

Sure, just like how I got rich building it. (Narrator: He did not get rich.. but he does have a donation link down below!)

Is this system foolproof?

Consider this to be about as reliable as Reece James' Achilles heel.

What are these "educational purposes only"?

Three magic words that lawyers love and punters pretend to care about. This is all a bit of fun; I've done the maths, you make the choices. If it goes wrong, we can commiserate together, but I'm not paying for your therapy.

Should I bet my life savings on these predictions?

No. Give them to me instead. (Don't do this either).

Why are you sharing this if it's not guaranteed to work?

Because I enjoy coding, football, and the faint hope that someone might find it interesting. Eek!

What can this calculator actually do?

Give you interesting insights into team performance, help you understand probabilities, and maybe play a small part in your Super 6 family-league victory.

What can this calculator NOT do?

Predict the future, account for dodgy VAR decisions, or do your laundry.

Small print: Have fun, share this with your friends, and buy me a pint if you like:

🍺 Buy Me a Pint

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