Matchweek 27
🧠 This Week’s Best Bets
TL;DR: Week 9 of the £100→£1000 Challenge and a frustrating MW26 saw us slip to £93.60 after the draw at West Ham was our only winner from five. Three managerial changes in a fortnight have thrown the league into chaos - Tudor at Spurs, Pereira at Forest, and Dyche gone after just four months - but the model doesn’t flinch. This week we’re loading up on Brighton away at Brentford (+26.8% EV) where the market continues to underprice away teams in Band 1, Man City vs Newcastle Under 2.5 (+32.1% EV) where two defensive crises paradoxically point to fewer goals, and Everton at home to fade Carrick’s bounce (+20.9% EV).
💰 Total Portfolio EV: +21.7% (weighted average) 📊 Bankroll Stake: 11.8% (£11.00 of £93.60) ⚡ Theme: The model found 29 +EV bets. We’re placing 5. The calculator can’t watch press conferences.
See for yourself: Odds Calculator
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📊 Matchweek 26 Review
A tough week. One winner from five, and even that came from the safety net rather than the headline play.
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Sunderland Win vs Liverpool | 4.62 | £2.50 | Lost 0-1 | ❌ LOSS |
| 🔥 West Ham Win vs Man Utd | 4.16 | £1.50 | Drew 1-1 | ❌ LOSS |
| 💎 Draw @ West Ham vs Man Utd | 4.19 | £1.00 | Drew 1-1 | ✅ WIN |
| 💎 Wolves Win @ Forest | 5.14 | £0.50 | Drew 0-0 | ❌ LOSS |
| 💰 Chelsea/Leeds Under 2.5 | 2.22 | £1.50 | Lost (2-2) | ❌ LOSS |
Result: 1/5 hits, -£2.85 loss (-40.7% ROI on £7.00 staked)
The Sunderland bet was the tightest of margins - Liverpool needed a van Dijk header that deflected off Habib Diarra to break the deadlock. Our model had Sunderland at 28.1% to win at home, which felt right watching the game. They had chances, but Slot’s Liverpool have a habit of finding a way even when they’re not at their best. Variance.
The West Ham/Man Utd draw at 4.19 was always the insurance play alongside the West Ham win, and it delivered £3.19 profit. The idea was right - Carrick’s United couldn’t win at the London Stadium - but backing the outright West Ham win at 4.16 missed. Chelsea vs Leeds hit exactly 4 goals, killing our Under 2.5. Leeds continue to surprise and that 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge tells you everything about their trajectory this season.
The real story of MW26 happened elsewhere. Burnley won 3-2 at Crystal Palace - perhaps the most shocking result of the season. The model had Burnley at +114% EV this week at Chelsea. That Palace result proves the model isn’t hallucinating when it sees value in Burnley away. But more on why we’re still skipping Chelsea vs Burnley below.
New Bankroll: £93.60 (-£6.40 from start, -6.4%)
📈 The Bigger Picture
| Week | Starting | Bets | Wins | Staked | P/L | Ending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW18 | £100.00 | 6 | 2 | £16.00 | +£3.55 | £103.55 |
| MW19 | £103.55 | 6 | 1 | £10.00 | -£6.18 | £97.37 |
| MW20 | £97.37 | 4 | 1 | £11.00 | -£6.62 | £90.75 |
| MW21 | £90.75 | 5 | 2 | £9.72 | +£2.00 | £92.75 |
| MW22 | £92.75 | 6 | 2 | £10.50 | -£0.80 | £91.95 |
| MW23 | £91.95 | 5 | 2 | £9.00 | +£0.50 | £92.45 |
| MW24 | £92.45 | 7 | 2 | £11.86 | -£2.17 | £92.85 |
| MW25 | £92.85 | 5 | 2 | £11.50 | +£3.60 | £96.45 |
| MW26 | £96.45 | 5 | 1 | £7.00 | -£2.85 | £93.60 |
Nine weeks in. We’ve been as high as £103.55 and as low as £90.75. Right now we’re sitting at £93.60, which is £6.40 below where we started. Not where we want to be, but not a disaster either. The model continues to find edge - our weighted average EV per week has been consistently above +15% - but variance on small sample sizes is brutal. We need volume, and we need patience. The process doesn’t change because of a losing week.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Brighton Win @ Brentford
The Bet: Brighton away win @ 3.53 (28.3% implied) Model Probability: 35.9% Expected Value: +26.8% Stake: £2.50 (2.7% of bankroll) Confidence: High
This is a Band 1 fixture - Brentford 1872 ELO, Brighton 1845, a gap of just 27 points. In practical terms, these teams are identical in quality. Band 1 fixtures are the purest coin flips in football, and the model has been consistently profitable backing away teams in these matchups because the market systematically overvalues home advantage when teams are this close.
After venue adjustment, the model gives Brighton a 35.9% chance of winning versus the 28.3% the bookmakers imply. That’s a +26.8% edge - the kind of mispricing you dream about.
Brighton under Hurzeler have been the definition of stable. Form rating 5.0/10, neither improving nor declining, just quietly competent. They drew Arsenal recently and have key midfielder Wieffer potentially returning from a toe injury for this fixture (expected Feb 21). Brentford beat Newcastle 3-2 away last week, which shows quality but also a willingness to concede. Both teams are comfortable with open, attacking football, which plays into Brighton’s technical strengths.
Why we’re backing this: The market overprices home advantage in Band 1 fixtures. Brentford are technically stronger by 27 ELO points, but that gap is noise. At 3.53, Brighton represent one of the best value away bets we’ve seen this season.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Everton Win vs Man Utd
The Bet: Everton home win @ 3.56 (28.1% implied) Model Probability: 34.0% Expected Value: +20.9% Stake: £2.50 (2.7% of bankroll) Confidence: Medium-High
Band 2 fixture, 52-point ELO gap. Man Utd are the stronger team by the numbers but they’re travelling to Goodison Park on a Monday night, and Everton have something United don’t - desperation.
Everton’s form rating of 6.0/10 is the highest of any team in the bottom half. Under Moyes they’ve been organised, hard to beat, and Goodison under the lights in a relegation fight is one of the most hostile environments in English football. They lost 1-2 to Bournemouth last week but the performance was better than the result.
Carrick’s Man Utd are the more interesting variable. Three wins from three - beating City 2-0, Arsenal 3-2, and Fulham 3-2 - has everyone convinced the bounce is real. And maybe it is. But the underlying form rating is only 4.4/10, suggesting those results are outperforming the underlying quality. At West Ham last week, they could only draw 1-1. The new manager bounce typically lasts 4-6 games before regression. We’re at game four.
Carrick’s system is possession-based, patient, and built around a No.10 (Fernandes thriving in the role). But Everton under Moyes won’t give him the space to play. Nuno-like compact shape, counter-attacking threat, set-piece danger. United’s selective pressing works against teams who want the ball - it doesn’t work as well when the opponent is happy to sit deep and spring.
Why we’re backing this: The market has fallen in love with Carrick’s three-game winning streak. Our model says Everton at home have a 34% chance - comfortably above the 28.1% the bookies imply. Fading the new manager bounce at Goodison is the play.
💎 VALUE PICK: Aston Villa Win vs Leeds
The Bet: Aston Villa home win @ 1.83 (54.6% implied) Model Probability: 60.3% Expected Value: +10.4% Stake: £2.00 (2.1% of bankroll) Confidence: Medium
The bread and butter play. Band 4 fixture, 173-point ELO gap, stronger team at home. Emery’s Villa at Villa Park are reliable - they beat Brighton 1-0 in MW26, they ground out results, and with Martinez back from the FA Cup rotation they’ve got their first-choice keeper between the sticks.
Leeds are the form team of the league right now. Form rating 6.2/10, improving trend, +51 ELO over the last 10 matches, Calvert-Lewin scoring in five consecutive games. They drew 2-2 at Chelsea and have genuine belief. But they’re still 173 ELO points below Villa, which puts this firmly in Band 4 territory. The model gives Villa a 60.3% chance and at 1.83, there’s a clean 10.4% edge.
The key injury for Leeds is Joe Rodon. His ankle ligaments ended a 104-game consecutive start streak, and he’s the organiser of that defensive unit. Without him, Leeds are more vulnerable to Emery’s structured attacking patterns, particularly the set-piece routines that have become a Villa hallmark.
Villa have their own midfield injury concerns - Kamara, Onana, and Barkley are all out - but Emery has shown he can adapt, and the return of Tammy Abraham from loan has given them depth in attack. This isn’t a premium play, but it’s a solid addition to the portfolio at low risk.
Why we’re backing this: Stronger team, at home, +10.4% edge. It won’t set the world alight but it’s a high-probability winner to anchor the portfolio.
💎 VALUE PICK: West Ham vs Bournemouth BTTS No
The Bet: Both teams to score - No @ 2.58 (38.8% implied) Model Probability: 43.5% Expected Value: +12.4% Stake: £1.50 (1.6% of bankroll) Confidence: Medium
Band 1 fixtures where BTTS doesn’t land 43.5% of the time historically. At 2.58, we’re getting almost 5 percentage points of edge.
The football supports this. West Ham are averaging 1.3 goals per game over the last 10 under Nuno - his sides are always defensive first, compact, hard to break down but equally limited going forward. Bournemouth have been gutted by injuries and transfers: Semenyo left for Man City in January, Adams is out 2-3 months with a knee injury, and both Kluivert and Doak are long-term absentees. Iraola’s side simply don’t have the attacking firepower they had earlier in the season.
This is a fixture where both managers will prioritise not losing. Nuno’s West Ham sit deep and counter. Bournemouth without their key attacking outlets will struggle to create consistently. One goal - or none - decides this.
Why we’re backing this: Two offensively limited sides meeting in a game neither can afford to lose. BTTS No at 2.58 offers genuine value against the historical rate.
❌ Bets We’re Skipping
| Bet | Model EV% | Why We’re Passing |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley Win @ Chelsea | +114.2% | Rosenior’s Chelsea have won 5 of 6. Burnley 19th and can’t score. The model sees a normal Band 5 fixture; the reality is a transformed team. |
| Spurs Win vs Arsenal | +27.7% | Tudor appointed 7 days ago. Against the league leaders. Maddison ACL, Kulusevski, Porro, Solanke all absent. The maths says yes, the football screams no. |
| Newcastle Win @ City | +30.4% | Four defenders out makes this too risky despite the EV. We’re taking the Under 2.5 from the same fixture instead. |
| Sunderland vs Fulham O2.5 | +14.9% | Both teams struggling offensively. Sunderland averaging 0.8 goals per game over last 10. Historical Band 1 averages don’t reflect current reality. |
| Man City vs Newcastle Draw | +9.7% | Correlated with our U2.5 bet. Don’t double-expose on the same fixture. |
The Burnley skip deserves a paragraph. +114.2% EV is the highest we’ve ever seen. The model isn’t wrong - Band 5 away teams win 19.1% of the time historically, and the bookies are pricing Burnley at 7.7% (13.05 odds). That’s a massive gap. Burnley just proved they can win away by beating Palace 3-2. But Rosenior’s Chelsea are not Glasner’s Palace. Five wins from six, Palmer orchestrating everything, counter-pressing generating goals from turnovers. The model will eventually catch up to Chelsea’s transformation through ELO changes, but right now the lag is too great. We watch, we note, we don’t bet.
The Spurs skip is simpler. Igor Tudor is a good manager. But he’s had one week with a squad missing its best midfielder (Maddison, ACL), its best winger (Kulusevski, still out), its best full-back (Porro, doubtful), and its main striker (Solanke, out). Against Arsenal. In the North London Derby. At 5.79 odds, the model says this is +27.7% EV. The model hasn’t watched Spurs this season. We have.
📋 Portfolio Summary
| Bet | Odds | Stake | EV% | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Brighton Win @ Brentford | 3.53 | £2.50 | +26.8% | PREMIUM |
| 🔥 Everton Win vs Man Utd | 3.56 | £2.50 | +20.9% | PREMIUM |
| 💎 Aston Villa Win vs Leeds | 1.83 | £2.00 | +10.4% | VALUE |
| 💎 West Ham vs Bournemouth BTTS No | 2.58 | £1.50 | +12.4% | VALUE |
| TOTAL | - | £8.50 | +17.6% avg | - |
Bankroll Allocation: 9% of £93.60 across 4 bets Correlated Risk: None - all five bets in separate fixtures Kelly Sizing: Quarter-Kelly across the board
Nine weeks into the £100→£1000 Challenge and we’re £6.40 down. Not ideal. But the weighted average EV on our bets continues to be strong, the model continues to find genuine edge, and the process hasn’t changed. Variance on 49 bets is real. Variance on 500 bets is noise. We’re building the sample.
Total Bankroll Exposure: £8.50 (9% of bankroll) Expected Profit: +£2.39 at these edge levels