Matchweek 25
🧠 This Week’s Best Bets
TL;DR: MW24 as a rollercoaster - we bet £12 and won 40p, but the narratives were wild. Man City’s freefall continues (2-2 draw with Spurs after being 2-0 up), Chelsea came back from 2-0 down to beat West Ham 3-2, and Man United’s winning streak under Carrick rolls on. This week’s headline is Spurs Win @ Man Utd (+64% EV). The model sees enormous value on away underdogs across the board, with Brentford, Everton, and Villa all offering 30%+ edges. We’re also loading up on BTTS Yes in Arsenal vs Sunderland (+26.3% EV)
💰 Total Portfolio EV: +33.3% (weighted average) 📊 Bankroll Stake: 11.0% ⚡ Summary: Away teams are criminally underpriced this week. The market keeps overvaluing home advantage in Band 1 fixtures, and we keep exploiting it. Five carefully selected bets, all on separate matches, all with double-digit edge.
See for yourself: Odds Calculator
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📊 Matchweek 23 Review
A week of dramatic comebacks, late equalisers, and scraping into the green by the skin of our teeth.
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Result | Score | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Spurs/Man City Draw | 8.00 | £2.00 | ✅ WON | 2-2 | +£6.00 |
| 💎 Man Utd/Fulham DC X2 | 5.95 | £2.50 | ❌ LOST | 3-2 | -£2.50 |
| 💎 Newcastle Win @ Liverpool | 8.00 | £2.00 | ❌ LOST | 1-4 | -£2.00 |
| 💰 West Ham Win @ Chelsea | 9.00 | £1.50 | ❌ LOST | 2-3 | -£1.50 |
| 💰 Everton Win @ Brighton | 8.00 | £2.00 | ❌ LOST | 1-1 | -£2.00 |
| 💎 Bournemouth Win vs Wolves | 4.40 | £2.00 | ✅ WON | 2-0 | +£2.40 |
| TOTAL | - | £12.00 | 2/6 | - | +£0.40 |
Man City 2-2 Spurs - The Comeback That Saved Us
City went 2-0 up and looked comfortable. Then Spurs - written off by everyone including me - fought back magnificently. Solanke’s late equaliser wasn’t just dramatic football; it was a £3.99 return on a £1.50 stake. Man City have now dropped nearly 50 ELO points since that 4-0 loss to Spurs back in November 2024. The freefall is real, and we’re exploiting it.
Man Utd 3-2 Fulham - The One That Got Away
This one stings. Man Utd were leading, Fulham equalised late to bring our draw odds alive… and then United scored the winner with minutes left. The Carrick effect is real - three wins from three since taking over. They beat City 2-0, Arsenal 3-2 away, and now this. If Carrick is the new Ferguson, we need to adjust our priors.
Chelsea 3-2 West Ham - Typical West Ham
West Ham were 2-0 up at half-time. 2-0. At Stamford Bridge. And they still lost. Chelsea rarely come back from two down at home - this was genuinely historic. Our Palace pick died alongside it. Rosenior’s Chelsea are finding their feet.
Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle - Normal Service Resumed
Liverpool reminded everyone they’re still Liverpool. Newcastle took the lead and were promptly put in their place. The title race continues.
Bournemouth 2-0 Wolves - Bread and Butter
This was always the “safe” +EV play. Bournemouth at home against a Wolves side who can’t score. It delivered exactly as expected.
Net result: -£2.17 from £11.86 staked (-18.3% ROI on the week)
Two winners from seven isn’t great, but the Spurs/City draw at 3.66 nearly covered all our losses. That’s the nature of backing longshots - when they hit, they hit big.
📈 The Bigger Picture
Seven weeks in, and the variance continues to humble us:
| Week | Starting | Bets | Wins | Stake | P/L | Ending | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW18 | £100.00 | 6 | 2 | £16.00 | +£3.55 | £103.55 | +22.2% |
| MW19 | £103.55 | 6 | 1 | £10.00 | -£6.18 | £97.37 | -61.8% |
| MW20 | £97.37 | 4 | 1 | £11.00 | -£6.62 | £90.75 | -60.2% |
| MW21 | £90.75 | 5 | 2 | £9.72 | +£2.00 | £92.75 | +20.6% |
| MW22 | £92.75 | 6 | 2 | £10.50 | -£0.70 | £92.05 | -6.7% |
| MW23 | £92.05 | 5 | 2 | £8.74 | -£0.51 | £91.54 | -5.8% |
| MW24 | £91.54 | 7 | 2 | £11.86 | -£2.17 | £92.85 | -18.3% |
| Cumulative | - | 39 | 12 | £77.82 | -£7.15 | £92.85 | -9.2% |
| Current Bankroll: £92.85 | Target: £1,000.00 | Progress: -7.2% |
Twelve winners from thirty-nine bets - that’s a 30.8% strike rate. The average implied probability of our selections is around 28-32%, so we’re converting at roughly the rate we should be. The issue isn’t the model; it’s variance over a small sample.
The edge compounds over hundreds of bets, not thirty-nine. We stay the course.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Man Utd vs Spurs - Spurs to Win + Double Chance X2
| Metric | Spurs Win | DC X2 (Draw/Spurs) |
|---|---|---|
| Bet | Spurs to Win @ 4.63 | Draw or Spurs @ 2.25 |
| Model Probability | 35.4% | 61.6% |
| Implied Probability | 21.6% | 44.4% |
| Expected Value (EV) | +64.0% | +38.6% |
| Stake | 1.5% bankroll | 1.5% bankroll |
🧩 Why This Has Value
I know what you’re thinking. Spurs? Against this Man United side? Are you mad?
Hear me out. This is a Band 1 fixture with just a 43-point ELO gap (Man Utd 1861 vs Spurs 1818). In Band 1 fixtures, the away team wins 35.4% of the time after venue adjustment, and draws occur 26.2% of the time. Combined, that’s a 61.6% chance that Man United don’t win.
The market has Spurs at 21.6% implied and the DC X2 at 44.4% implied. Both are massive mispricings - 64% edge on the outright win, 39% edge on the double chance.
📈 The Form Paradox
Yes, Man United are flying. Three wins from three under Carrick - beating City, Arsenal away, and Fulham. Form rating 4.8/10 (stable). They look like a different team.
And yes, Spurs are struggling. Form rating 3.4/10 (declining). They’ve lost key players to injury - Maddison (ACL, season), Kulusevski (knee), Porro (hamstring). They came back from 2-0 down against City but still only drew.
But here’s the thing: the market has already priced all of this in - and then some. At 4.63 odds on Spurs and 2.25 on the DC, the bookmakers are offering enormous overlay. Our model - based on 2,000+ matches of historical data - says both bets have substantial edge.
🏥 Team News
Man United are missing De Ligt (back), Maguire (hamstring), and Dorgu (hamstring). Spurs have their own injury list, but Bissouma and Sarr are back from AFCON. Van de Ven should be fit after a minor knock.
💼 Portfolio Play
We’re splitting exposure here: 1.5% on the outright Spurs win for the big upside, 1.5% on the DC X2 as a safety net. If Spurs win, both bets cash. If it’s a draw, the DC saves us. Only a Man United win kills both. This is risk management meeting opportunity - we maintain exposure to the +64% edge while giving ourselves a 62% chance of cashing something.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Newcastle vs Brentford - Brentford to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Brentford to Win @ 3.77 (26.5% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.82 (35.4% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +33.5% |
| Stake | 2.0% bankroll (Third-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Another Band 1 fixture where the market is systematically underpricing the away team. Newcastle (1893 ELO) vs Brentford (1860 ELO) - just 33 points difference. The model gives Brentford a 35.4% win probability; the market says 26.5%. That’s a third of the price being given away.
📈 Form Comparison
This is where Brentford shine. Form rating 5.7/10 (stable), +8 ELO over the last 10 games. They beat Everton 4-2 away and Villa 1-0. Keith Andrews has them playing organised, direct football.
Newcastle, meanwhile, have a defensive injury crisis. Schar (surgery), Burn (rib), Trippier (hamstring), Livramento (knee) - their back line is held together with tape. They beat Leeds 4-3 recently, but that scoreline tells you everything about their defensive vulnerability.
💼 Portfolio Play
This is our conviction away pick of the week. Good form, good edge, reasonable odds. Third-Kelly sizing reflects genuine confidence.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Arsenal vs Sunderland - BTTS Yes
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | BTTS Yes @ 2.40 (41.7% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.90 (52.6% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +26.3% |
| Stake | 2.5% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
The market thinks Arsenal will keep a clean sheet. At 2.40 for BTTS Yes (41.7% implied), they’re pricing Sunderland’s goal probability at well under 50%. But Band 5 historical data shows BTTS lands 52.6% of the time in these fixtures.
📈 The Case For Sunderland Scoring
Sunderland aren’t pushovers. They held Arsenal to a draw earlier this season. They beat Burnley 3-0 in their last game. Xhaka provides experienced leadership, and Le Bris has this young squad believing. They’re 12th in the league - not a relegation battler but a genuine mid-table side.
Arsenal will likely win this game (66.3% model probability). But “Arsenal win” and “Arsenal keep a clean sheet” are different questions. The BTTS market is offering value on Sunderland finding the net at least once.
💼 Portfolio Play
This diversifies our portfolio away from pure match results. If Sunderland nick a goal - even in a 3-1 loss - we cash.
💎 VALUE PLAY: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa - Villa to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Aston Villa to Win @ 2.44 (41.0% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.17 (46.1% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +12.5% |
| Stake | 2.0% bankroll (Half-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 3 fixture where Villa are the ELO-stronger team (1923 vs Bournemouth’s 1815 - 108 points). Even travelling away, the model gives Villa a 46.1% win probability after venue adjustment. The market has them at 41.0% - that’s 12.5% edge.
📈 Villa’s Reality Check
I used to bang the drum for Villa being undervalued. Then they lost to Brentford 1-0 at home. The whispers about them being overrated have some merit now - their form rating has dropped to 4.9/10, and they’ve lost some of that early-season magic.
But here’s the thing: they’re still the 4th-best team in the league by ELO. Bournemouth are 14th. The gap is real, even if Villa aren’t the world-beaters they looked like in autumn.
💼 Portfolio Play
This is our “bread and butter” bet - similar edge to the Bournemouth pick that landed last week. Solid, unspectacular, mathematically sound.
💎 VALUE PLAY: Fulham vs Everton - Everton to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Everton to Win @ 3.68 (27.2% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.82 (35.4% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +30.3% |
| Stake | 2.0% bankroll (Third-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is the closest thing to a coin flip you’ll find. Band 1 fixture with just 9 ELO points separating these teams (Fulham 1816 vs Everton 1807). These teams are essentially identical - same claret kits, same mid-table mediocrity.
The model says: Home 38.4%, Draw 26.2%, Away 35.4%. The market has Everton at 27.2% implied. That’s 8 percentage points being given away - a 30% edge.
📈 Form Analysis
Everton’s form rating is actually better than Fulham’s (6.0 vs 4.9). Yes, Everton are in the relegation zone and Fulham are 11th - but ELO cares about recent performance, and Everton have stabilised under Moyes. Jack Grealish is available after serving his FA Cup ban.
Fulham have AFCON players back (Bassey, Iwobi, Chukwueze), but they lost Adama Traore to West Ham and are missing Muniz (hamstring).
💼 Portfolio Play
Another away underdog at generous odds. The pattern this week is clear: the market is systematically overpricing home advantage in Band 1 fixtures.
🚫 Bets to Avoid
| Match | Bet | Odds | Why Avoid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds vs Nott’m Forest | Forest Win | 3.35 | Band 2 away team with +31.4% EV looks tempting, but Forest’s form is dire (2.8 rating, -22 ELO L5, declining trend). Form override applies. |
| Brighton vs Crystal Palace | Palace Win | 3.69 | +30.7% EV on paper, but Palace are in freefall (-56 ELO L10, 0.7 goals scored L10). They’re the new Wolves. Hard pass. |
| Arsenal vs Sunderland | Sunderland Win | 13.75 | +119.6% EV - the highest I’ve ever calculated. But it’s a longshot that loses ~84% of the time. The BTTS is better value. |
| Liverpool vs Man City | Any side | Various | Band 1 fixture where no match result market offers +5% EV. The Under 2.5 (+6.5%) is marginal. Watch and enjoy, don’t bet. |
| Wolves vs Chelsea | Wolves or Draw | 4.72/3.95 | Chelsea are the ELO-stronger team by a wide margin (Band 6). The only value here is BTTS No (+9.9%), but it’s thin. |
| Burnley vs West Ham | Either side | Various | Band 3 fixture that will play like a Band 1. Both teams have the same claret kit and the same lack of attacking threat. Skip. |
📋 Portfolio Summary
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Kelly Type | EV% | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Spurs Win @ Man Utd | 4.63 | 2.5% | Quarter-Kelly | +64.0% | PREMIUM |
| 🔥 Brentford Win @ Newcastle | 3.77 | 2.0% | Third-Kelly | +33.5% | PREMIUM |
| 🔥 BTTS Yes Arsenal/Sunderland | 2.40 | 2.5% | Quarter-Kelly | +26.3% | PREMIUM |
| 💎 Villa Win @ Bournemouth | 2.44 | 2.0% | Half-Kelly | +12.5% | VALUE |
| 💎 Everton Win @ Fulham | 3.68 | 2.0% | Third-Kelly | +30.3% | VALUE |
| TOTAL | - | 11.0% | - | +33.3% avg | - |
Bankroll Allocation: 11.0% (£10.21 on £92.85 bankroll)
Correlated Risk: None. All five bets are in separate matches.
🎯 Super 6 Predictions
For the Sky Sports Super 6 jackpot game - optimising for exact correct score (5 points) over result (2 points)
| Match | Prediction | Confidence | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs Sunderland | 2-0 | High | Arsenal’s home fortress meets Sunderland’s limited away threat. Comfortable win, clean sheet likely. |
| Bournemouth vs Aston Villa | 1-2 | Medium | Villa’s quality tells on the road. Tight game, both score, visitors edge it. |
| Wolves vs Chelsea | 0-2 | High | Wolves can’t score (0.8 GF L10). Chelsea control and keep a clean sheet. |
| Newcastle vs Brentford | 1-1 | Medium | Band 1 fixture, evenly matched teams. Draw is the single most likely outcome. |
| Brighton vs Crystal Palace | 2-0 | Medium | Palace can’t score (0.7 GF L10). Brighton comfortable at home. |
| Liverpool vs Man City | 1-1 | Medium | Two giants, neither in top form. City’s freefall meets Liverpool’s inconsistency. Cagey draw. |
Super 6 Strategy Note: These predictions prioritise the single most likely exact score (typically 10-18% probability), not betting value. Different goals, different strategies.
Final Thoughts
Seven weeks in, and the theme is becoming clear: away underdogs are systematically underpriced.
This week’s portfolio is built entirely around that thesis. Four of our five bets are on away teams - Spurs at United, Brentford at Newcastle, Villa at Bournemouth, Everton at Fulham. The fifth is BTTS at Arsenal, which is essentially a bet that Sunderland (away team) will score.
The market keeps making the same mistake. In Band 1 fixtures - where teams are closely matched by ELO - the away team wins 35% of the time. That’s more than one in three. Yet bookmakers routinely price them at 25-28% implied. That’s a systematic mispricing we can exploit.
Man City’s freefall is the other story of the season. They’ve dropped 27 ELO points in the last 5 games alone. Their form rating is 2.4/10 - the lowest of any top-six team. The 2-2 draw with Spurs after being 2-0 up is symptomatic of a team that’s lost its way. We backed that draw at 3.66 and it saved our week.
The model found value again this week. Whether variance cooperates remains to be seen.
Total Bankroll Exposure: 11.0% Expected Profit: +3.7% at these edge levels
Trust the process. The edge compounds over hundreds of bets, not thirty-nine. We stay the course.
All probabilities calculated using 5+ seasons of Premier League data (2,047 matches). ELO bands updated weekly.
Don’t be an idiot. In case you’re feeling like being an idiot today, here is a page wherein I tell you not to gamble your mortgage away. Hey, that rhymes.
Odds correct at time of writing