Matchweek 24
🧠 This Week’s Best Bets
TL;DR: MW23 was a grind — 2 winners from 5 bets, scraping 50p profit. But we’re still alive at £92.45. This week’s headline is Fulham Double Chance @ 2.38 (+45% EV) in a Band 1 fixture where the market has Man United priced like prime Ferguson-era dominators. We’re also loading up on away underdogs at crisis clubs: Everton, Newcastle, and yes — West Ham at Chelsea. The model sees massive value in teams the market keeps disrespecting.
💰 Total Portfolio EV: +31.4% (weighted average) 📊 Bankroll Stake: 12.0% ⚡ Summary: Six bets targeting mispriced away teams. Fulham DC is the highest-conviction play. Liverpool’s crisis continues. Two broken giants meet at the Lane. And I’m backing West Ham against my own club — that’s how you know the edge is real.
See for yourself: Odds Calculator
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📊 Matchweek 23 Review
A week of margins. Two winners from five bets, but we scraped into profit by the skin of our teeth.
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Sunderland Win @ West Ham | 2.85 | £2.50 | ❌ LOST | -£2.50 |
| 💎 Palace Win vs Chelsea | 3.48 | £1.50 | ❌ LOST | -£1.50 |
| 💎 Man City v Wolves U2.5 | 3.05 | £2.00 | ✅ WON | +£4.00 |
| 💰 Villa Win @ Newcastle | 3.56 | £1.00 | ✅ WON | +£2.50 |
| 💰 Everton Win vs Leeds | 2.39 | £2.00 | ❌ LOST | -£2.00 |
| TOTAL | - | £9.00 | 2/5 | +£0.50 |
West Ham 3-1 Sunderland — The Curse Continues
Sunderland have now cost us five times this challenge. We identified value again — the model keeps seeing it — but they keep finding ways to lose. West Ham were clinical; Sunderland were wasteful. The ELO gap said this should be closer. It wasn’t.
Chelsea 3-1 Crystal Palace — Form Override Vindicated
We flagged Palace’s form collapse (-54 ELO L10) but still took the punt at +15% EV. In hindsight, we should have trusted the form override more strongly. Palace are broken. Glasner has no answers. The model saw mathematical value; the eye test screamed trap. Lesson reinforced.
Man City 2-0 Wolves — Under 2.5 Delivers
City’s defensive crisis continues — Gvardiol, Dias, Stones all out — but they’re still grinding results. The U2.5 was always about Wolves’ inability to score, and they duly delivered another blank. Two goals, under hits, +£2.69 banked.
Aston Villa 2-0 Newcastle — Away Value Lands
Villa bounced back from their Arsenal humiliation with a professional away performance. Watkins header, clean sheet, job done. At 3.56 odds, this was excellent value that the model correctly identified. Newcastle’s home form isn’t what it was.
Everton 1-1 Leeds — The Draw That Killed Us
Justin gave Leeds the lead; Barry equalised. Neither side could find a winner. Our Everton Win bet needed the full three points — the draw was death. The 2.39 odds implied 42% probability; the model had them at 34.9%. Close margins, wrong side of variance.
Net result: +£0.50 from £9.00 staked (+5.6% ROI on the week)
Scrappy. Survival mode. But we live to fight another week.
📈 The Bigger Picture
Seven weeks in. The variance continues to test us.
| Week | Starting | Bets | Wins | Stake | P/L | Ending | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW18 | £100.00 | 6 | 2 | £16.00 | +£3.55 | £103.55 | +22.2% |
| MW19 | £103.55 | 6 | 1 | £10.00 | -£6.18 | £97.37 | -61.8% |
| MW20 | £97.37 | 4 | 1 | £11.00 | -£6.62 | £90.75 | -60.2% |
| MW21 | £90.75 | 5 | 2 | £9.72 | +£2.00 | £92.75 | +20.6% |
| MW22 | £92.75 | 6 | 2 | £10.50 | -£0.70 | £92.05 | -6.7% |
| MW23 | £92.05 | 5 | 2 | £9.00 | +£0.50 | £92.45 | +5.6% |
| MW24 | £92.45 | 6 | - | £11.09 | - | - | - |
| Cumulative | - | 32 | 10 | £66.22 | -£7.55 | £92.45 | -11.4% |
| Current Bankroll: £92.45 | Target: £1,000 | Progress: -7.6% |
Ten winners from thirty-two bets. That’s a 31.3% strike rate — not far off where we’d expect given the average implied probabilities we’re targeting. The issue isn’t the strike rate; it’s the distribution of winners across stake sizes. Our biggest conviction plays keep missing by margins while the smaller stakes land.
The process remains sound. The edge compounds over hundreds of bets, not thirty-two.
🔧 Methodology Note: The Arsenal Edge Case
Something interesting happened during this week’s analysis that’s worth sharing.
Leeds vs Arsenal sits at exactly 300 ELO difference (Leeds 1740, Arsenal 2040). My calculator placed this in Band 7 (301-350), which would give Arsenal a 76.3% win probability and make them +17% EV at 1.53 odds.
But 300 is the boundary. It should be Band 6 (251-300), which gives Arsenal 59.3% — making them -9% EV at the same odds.
One ELO point. The difference between a premium bet and a skip.
Given Arsenal’s recent form — drawing 0-0 to Forest, losing to Manchester United — I’m inclined to trust Band 6. The market has them right. This is a fixture where the mathematical edge hangs on a knife edge, and form tips the balance toward “no bet.”
This is exactly why we show our working. Transparency builds trust. The model isn’t a black box; it’s a framework for thinking about probability. When the framework produces a marginal result, context matters.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Man Utd vs Fulham — Fulham or Draw Double Chance
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Fulham or Draw DC @ 2.38 (42.0% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.64 (60.9% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +44.9% |
| Stake | 2.5% bankroll (£2.31) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 1 fixture. Man United (1857 ELO) vs Fulham (1820 ELO) — just 37 points separating them. In Band 1, the stronger home team wins only 39.1% of the time after venue adjustment. The weaker away team wins 34.9%. Draws happen 26.0%.
Add those together: Fulham or Draw = 60.9% probability.
The bookmakers are offering 2.38 (42.0% implied). That’s a 45% edge.
📈 The New Manager Factor
Yes, United just beat City and Arsenal back-to-back under Michael Carrick. The new manager bounce is real. But here’s the thing: it’s a new manager, not a new team. The underlying squad that struggled under Amorim is the same squad that’s now winning. Regression is coming.
Fulham, meanwhile, just beat Brighton 2-1 and have been quietly consistent. Marco Silva has them well-drilled. At 2.38 for the DC, we’re getting paid nearly 2.4x for something that happens 61% of the time.
💼 Portfolio Play
This is our highest-conviction bet of the week. The DC structure gives us a 61% hit rate while still offering meaningful returns. If Fulham nick it, we’re laughing. If it’s a cagey 1-1, we still cash. Only a United win beats us — and the model says that’s a 39% outcome priced like a 58% certainty.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Brighton vs Everton — Everton to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Everton to Win @ 4.08 (24.5% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.87 (34.9% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +42.4% |
| Stake | 2.0% bankroll (£1.85) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Another Band 1 fixture — Brighton (1855 ELO) vs Everton (1807 ELO), just 48 points apart. After venue adjustment, the away team wins 34.9% of the time in these matchups.
At 4.08 odds (24.5% implied), the market is giving us 42% edge.
📈 Form Context
Brighton have been utterly anonymous. I had to actively search for their recent results because they’ve made zero splash in the headlines. They’re treading water in mid-table with stable-but-unremarkable form (4.5/10).
Everton, meanwhile, have been grinding. Form rating 5.4/10, +14 ELO over the last 10 games. They drew 1-1 with Leeds despite going behind. Moyes has them organised and hard to beat.
This is the definition of a “too juicy to ignore” price. The market has Everton as 24.5% shots. The model says 35%. That gap is enormous.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Liverpool vs Newcastle — Newcastle to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Newcastle to Win @ 4.11 (24.3% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.87 (34.9% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +43.4% |
| Stake | 2.0% bankroll (£1.85) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Band 1 fixture — Liverpool (1945 ELO) vs Newcastle (1901 ELO), separated by just 44 points. In these evenly-matched games, the away team wins 34.9% after venue adjustment.
The market has Newcastle at 24.3%. The model says 34.9%. That’s 43% edge.
📈 Liverpool’s Crisis Is Real
Let’s count the problems at Anfield:
Salah — At AFCON with Egypt. Their best player by a distance, gone for the foreseeable.
Isak — Broken leg. Surgery in December. Their £125m striker is a long-term absentee.
Recent form — Lost 3-2 to Bournemouth. Drew 1-1 with Burnley. Drew 0-0 with Arsenal. They haven’t won in four league games.
Liverpool’s attack is decimated. They’re relying on Wirtz, Gakpo, and a prayer. Newcastle, meanwhile, just lost 2-0 to Villa but have genuine quality in the squad. Eddie Howe knows how to set up away from home.
At 4.11 odds, this is too juicy to ignore.
💎 VALUE PICK: Chelsea vs West Ham — West Ham to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | West Ham to Win @ 5.93 (16.9% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 4.55 (22.0% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +30.7% |
| Stake | 1.5% bankroll (£1.39) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Band 3 fixture — Chelsea (1916 ELO) vs West Ham (1773 ELO), 143 points apart. After venue adjustment, the away underdog wins 22.0% of the time.
At 5.93 odds (16.9% implied), we’re getting 31% edge.
📈 The Confession
I’m a Chelsea fan. My partner supports West Ham. Derby days are… tense.
Backing West Ham to win at Stamford Bridge gives me a hedge on domestic harmony. If Chelsea win, great — my team won. If West Ham win, I’ve got a betting slip that takes the sting out of the inevitable gloating.
But this isn’t just relationship EV. West Ham have genuine momentum: beat Sunderland 3-1 at home, beat Spurs 2-1 away. That’s back-to-back wins against decent opposition. Chelsea have been getting away with results, but the underlying performances have been sketchy. They’re papering over cracks.
At nearly 6-1, the risk/reward makes sense.
💎 VALUE PICK: Wolves vs Bournemouth — Bournemouth to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Bournemouth to Win @ 2.19 (45.7% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.92 (52.0% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +14.0% |
| Stake | 2.0% bankroll (£1.85) |
| Confidence | Medium-High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Band 4 fixture — Wolves (1654 ELO) vs Bournemouth (1815 ELO), 161 points apart. The ELO-stronger team travelling away still wins 52.0% of the time after venue adjustment.
At 2.19 odds (45.7% implied), we’re getting 14% edge.
📈 The “Most Likely To Win” Bet
This is our highest-probability selection. Bournemouth at 52% to win is the closest thing to a “banker” in a week full of longshots.
Bournemouth just beat Liverpool 3-2. Read that again. They beat the defending champions at home. Iraola has this squad playing with genuine belief. They’re improving (+25 ELO L10), form rating 6.0/10, and they don’t fear anyone.
Wolves are also improving (+15 ELO L10), which is why the market has adjusted. But “improving from catastrophic” is still not “good.” Bournemouth are the better side. The ELO gap confirms it. The price is wrong.
💰 SOLID VALUE: Spurs vs Man City — Draw
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Draw @ 4.13 (24.2% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 3.68 (27.2% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +12.2% |
| Stake | 2.0% bankroll (£1.85) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Band 4 fixture — Spurs (1816 ELO) vs Man City (2003 ELO), 187 points apart. When the stronger team is away, draws happen 27.2% of the time.
At 4.13 odds (24.2% implied), we’re getting 12% edge on the draw.
📈 Two Broken Giants
Spurs are shit. There’s no polite way to say it. Form rating 3.4/10, declining, -16 ELO over 10 games. Maddison’s ACL has ended their creative threat. Thomas Frank is under pressure.
City are also struggling. Gvardiol (tibial fracture), Dias (hamstring), Stones (thigh) — their entire defence is in the treatment room. They’ve drawn their last four league games. The title race is slipping away.
When two struggling sides meet, the draw becomes more likely. Neither deserves to win this game. At 4.13, we’re getting paid to bet on mutual mediocrity.
🚫 Bets We’re Skipping
| Match | Bet | EV% | Why Skip |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds v Arsenal | Arsenal Win | -9.2% | Band 6 makes this negative EV despite Arsenal quality |
| Leeds v Arsenal | Leeds Win | +26.8% | Arsenal’s form may be wobbly but they’re still class above |
| Forest v Palace | Palace Win | +15.5% | Form override: -54 ELO L10, 3.5/10 rating. Trap. |
| Sunderland v Burnley | Burnley Win | +10.7% | 1.9/10 form. Can’t back a broken team no matter the maths. |
| Villa v Brentford | Any | <5% | No value in any market. Fair prices throughout. |
📋 Portfolio Summary
| Bet | Odds | Kelly Stake | EV% | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham or Draw DC @ Man Utd | 2.38 | 2.5% (Eighth) | +44.9% | 🔥 PREMIUM |
| Everton Win @ Brighton | 4.08 | 2.0% | +42.4% (Quarter) | 🔥 PREMIUM |
| Newcastle Win @ Liverpool | 4.11 | 2.0% | +43.4% (Quarter) | 🔥 PREMIUM |
| West Ham Win @ Chelsea | 5.93 | 1.5% | +30.7% (Half) | 💎 VALUE |
| Bournemouth Win @ Wolves | 2.19 | 2.0% | +14.0% (Third) | 💎 VALUE |
| Draw @ Spurs v Man City | 4.13 | 2.0% | +12.2% (Half) | 💰 SOLID |
| TOTAL | - | £11.09 (12.0%) | +31.4% avg | - |
Bankroll Allocation: 12.0%
Correlated Risk: Minimal. All bets in separate matches.
Final Thoughts
Seven weeks in, and we’re still in the fight. Down £7.55 from the starting £100, but the process remains sound.
This week’s portfolio is unapologetically contrarian. We’re backing away teams across the board — Fulham DC, Everton, Newcastle, West Ham, Bournemouth — against home sides the market has overpriced. The model sees value where others see upsets.
The Fulham DC at 2.38 is the standout. A Band 1 fixture priced like a Band 4 mismatch. United’s new manager bounce is real, but the underlying quality gap is tiny. We’re getting paid 2.4x for something that happens 61% of the time. That’s the kind of inefficiency we exist to exploit.
The Liverpool/Newcastle play is juicy. Salah at AFCON, Isak injured, four games without a win. The defending champions are vulnerable, and Newcastle have the quality to capitalise.
And yes, I’m backing West Ham against Chelsea. Sometimes the best tiebreaker for a marginal bet is domestic peace. The model says +31% EV. The relationship says “insurance policy.” Both are valid.
The edge compounds over hundreds of bets. We’re at thirty-two. Keep the faith.
Total Bankroll Exposure: 12.0% Expected Profit: +£3.48 at these edge levels
All probabilities calculated using 5+ seasons of Premier League data (2,000+ matches). ELO bands updated weekly.
Don’t be an idiot. In case you’re feeling like being an idiot today, here is a page wherein I tell you not to gamble your mortgage away. Hey, that rhymes.
Odds correct at time of writing