Matchweek 23
🧠 This Week’s Best Bets
TL;DR: MW22 was a frustrating near-miss - 2 winners from 6 bets, but the two that landed (West Ham, Sunderland) nearly covered our losses. We’re down just £-0.70 on the week. This week’s headline is Sunderland away at West Ham (+13.4% EV) where Sunderland are the ELO-stronger team, have all their AFCON players back, and face a West Ham side conceding nearly 2 goals per game. We’re also backing Man City Under 2.5 goals (+17% EV) - their defensive crisis is real and Wolves can’t score.
💰 Total Portfolio EV: +13.8% (weighted average) 📊 Bankroll Stake: 9.5% ⚡ Summary: Sunderland finally delivered last week and we’re going back to the well. City’s defensive injuries create Under value. Two “crisis vs crisis” fixtures in Palace/Chelsea and Everton/Leeds offer genuine edge.
See for yourself: Odds Calculator
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📊 Matchweek 22 Review
A week of near-misses. Two winners from six bets, but the margins were brutal.
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Brentford Win @ Chelsea | 4.80 | 2.5% | ❌ LOST |
| 🔥 Fulham Win @ Leeds | 3.28 | 2.5% | ❌ LOST |
| 💎 West Ham Win @ Spurs | 4.67 | 1.0% | ✅ WON |
| 💎 Sunderland Win vs Palace | 2.64 | 2.0% | ✅ WON |
| 💎 Leeds vs Fulham O2.5 | 2.11 | 1.5% | ❌ LOST |
| 💰 Villa vs Everton BTTS | 1.87 | 1.0% | ❌ LOST |
| TOTAL | - | 9.7% | 2/6 |
Chelsea 2-0 Brentford - The New Manager Bounce
I’ll be honest: I expected Brentford to beat my own team. Chelsea were playing like dogshit, but Rosenior got his first win. Palmer scored. Brentford’s 8.2/10 form rating didn’t translate. Sometimes the market prices in dysfunction accurately. This time, Chelsea’s quality told.
Leeds 1-0 Fulham - The Fortress Holds
Fulham were ELO favourites. The model saw +29.5% edge. What we didn’t account for: Elland Road is a cauldron, and Fulham’s AFCON absences (Bassey, Iwobi, Chukwueze) weakened them more than anticipated. One goal decided it. Our Over 2.5 died alongside the Fulham Win - a 1-0 game killed both bets.
West Ham 2-1 Spurs - The Redemption Continues
We’ve been hammering Spurs’ dreadful home record for weeks. This time we flipped the script - backed West Ham away, and they delivered. Spurs have now won just 2 of their last 10 home league games. The market keeps pricing them as normal Spurs. They’re not. At 4.67 odds, this was a gift.
You’ll see in our Matchweek 22 post that we reduced our stake on this game to eighth Kelly because of West Ham’s poor performance. Could have put us in the green, but then again, it’s two out-of-form teams; anything could have happened.
Sunderland 2-1 Crystal Palace - Finally
After burning us four times this challenge, Sunderland finally delivered. The model kept seeing value; they kept finding ways to lose. Not this time. Palace’s form collapse (-53 ELO over 10 games) was real, and Sunderland capitalised. Le Bris has this young squad playing with genuine belief.
Villa 0-1 Everton - The Upset That Killed BTTS
Nobody saw this coming. Villa, title challengers, losing at home to an Everton side that had been in freefall. One goal, wrong end. Our BTTS bet needed both teams to score - Everton’s lone goal was enough to win but not enough for us.
Net result: -£0.51 from £9.74 staked (-5.2% ROI on the week)
Frustrating. The two winners returned +£6.75, but we staked £7.50 on the four losers. Near-breakeven isn’t what we’re chasing, but it beats the -60% weeks we’ve had before.
📈 The Bigger Picture
Six weeks in, and we’re learning what variance really means:
| Week | Starting | Bets | Wins | Stake | P/L | Ending | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW18 | £100.00 | 6 | 2 | £16.00 | +£3.55 | £103.55 | +22.2% |
| MW19 | £103.55 | 6 | 1 | £10.00 | -£6.18 | £97.37 | -61.8% |
| MW20 | £97.37 | 4 | 1 | £11.00 | -£6.62 | £90.75 | -60.2% |
| MW21 | £90.75 | 5 | 2 | £9.72 | +£2.00 | £92.75 | +20.6% |
| MW22 | £92.75 | 6 | 2 | £10.50 | -£0.70 | £91.95 | -7.7% |
| MW23 | £91.95 | 5 | - | 9.5% | - | - | - |
| Cumulative | - | 27 | 8 | £56.46 | -8.05 | £91.95 | -14.3% |
| Current Bankroll: £91.95 | Target: £1,000.00 | Progress: -8.1% |
Eight winners from twenty-seven bets. That’s a 29.6% strike rate against an average implied probability of roughly 28-32%. We’re converting at almost exactly the rate expected - the issue is the sample size is still tiny.
The edge compounds over hundreds of bets, not twenty-seven. We stay the course.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: West Ham vs Sunderland - Sunderland to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Sunderland to Win @ 2.85 (35.1% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.51 (39.8% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +13.4% |
| Stake | 2.5% bankroll (Third-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Here’s something the market keeps missing: Sunderland are the ELO-stronger team in this fixture.
This is a Band 2 fixture with a 60-point ELO gap - Sunderland at 1823 vs West Ham at 1763. After venue adjustment, the model gives Sunderland a 39.8% win probability. The bookies have them at just 35.1% implied. That’s a 13.4% edge on what is effectively the favourite by our model’s measure.
📈 AFCON Players Are Back
Sunderland had six players at AFCON during their rough patch: Reinildo, Masuaku, Sadiki, Talbi, Traoré, and Diarra. That 3-0 loss at Brentford? Depleted squad. The tournament ended last week - those players are now available.
Their squad is suddenly significantly stronger than it was two weeks ago.
📉 West Ham Are Leaking Goals
West Ham are conceding 1.9 goals per game over their last 10. That’s dreadful. Their form rating sits at 3.5/10 (declining). Yes, they beat Spurs 2-1 last week - but that says more about Spurs’ home form than West Ham’s quality.
Sunderland’s defensive record (1.2 GA L10) is significantly better. They held Man City to 0-0. They drew 1-1 with Spurs. They just beat Palace 2-1.
⚠️ The “Burned Us Before” Factor
I hear you. Sunderland have cost us multiple times this challenge. But context matters: Spurs away (drew 1-1, unlucky), Brentford away (6 AFCON absences). This is West Ham at home - a declining, leaky, demoralised side.
The redemption arc continues…
💎 VALUE PICK: Crystal Palace vs Chelsea - Palace to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Palace to Win @ 3.48 (28.7% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 3.08 (32.5% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +13.2% |
| Stake | 1.5% bankroll (Half-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 2 fixture - Chelsea are ELO-stronger (1905 vs 1830), but only by 75 points. After venue adjustment for Palace at home, the model gives them a 32.5% win probability vs the implied 28.7%.
📉 Chelsea’s Form Is Dire
I watched Chelsea just about scrape a 1-0 victory against Pathos in the Champions League at Stamford Bridge midweek. They created nothing. Rosenior got his first win against Brentford, but the underlying performance was poor - they needed Palmer brilliance and Brentford mistakes.
Chelsea’s form rating sits at 4.1/10. They’ve lost 22 ELO points over the last 10 games. The new manager bounce gave them one win; the structural issues remain.
📈 Palace Have Stabilised
Yes, Palace’s form has been awful (-53 ELO over 10 games). But they’ve actually drawn their last two home games - 0-0 vs Villa, 0-0 vs someone else. Glasner’s defensive approach is at least stopping the bleeding.
Selhurst Park is hostile. Chelsea away from Stamford Bridge are vulnerable. The price is wrong.
⚠️ Why We’re Sizing Conservatively
Both teams are in crisis. This is a “who’s less broken?” bet. Half-Kelly reflects the uncertainty - but 13.2% edge is still 13.2% edge.
💎 VALUE PICK: Man City vs Wolves - Under 2.5 Goals
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Under 2.5 Goals @ 3.05 (32.8% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.60 (38.4% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +17.0% |
| Stake | 2.0% bankroll (Half-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Man City’s defensive crisis is the story of their season. Gvardiol had surgery for a tibial fracture. Dias is out 4-6 weeks with a hamstring. Stones is out for months. Their only fit centre-backs are Ake, Khusanov, and Max Alleyne (20 years old, zero senior appearances).
But here’s the thing: Wolves can’t punish them.
Wolves average 0.8 goals scored over their last 10 games. They’re not going to exploit City’s makeshift defence because they can’t score against anyone.
📊 City’s Low-Scoring Run
City’s last 3 league games: Drew 1-1, Drew 1-1, Drew 0-0. That’s 4 goals in 3 games total - an average of 1.33 per match.
Their form rating is 3.5/10 (declining). They control possession but aren’t converting. Against a Wolves side that will park 11 men behind the ball, this has 2-0 or 1-0 City win written all over it.
📈 Band 7 Context
This is a Band 7 fixture (347 ELO difference). Historically, Under 2.5 hits 38.4% of the time in Band 7. The bookies have it at 32.8% implied. The edge is real.
💰 SOLID VALUE: Newcastle vs Aston Villa - Villa to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Villa to Win @ 3.56 (28.1% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 3.24 (30.9% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +9.9% |
| Stake | 1.0% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 1 fixture - just 33 ELO points separate Newcastle (1901) and Villa (1934). These teams are essentially identical by our model’s measure. After venue adjustment, Villa get a 30.9% win probability vs the implied 28.1%.
The edge is thin (+9.9%), but Villa are in a title race. They’re 3 points behind Arsenal. They need to win games like this.
📉 Villa Lost at Everton - Bounce Back Candidate
Villa’s shock 0-1 loss at Goodison Park last week was their first league defeat in ages. Emery’s side don’t lose back-to-back often. The response should be strong.
⚠️ Why We’re Sizing Small
Band 1 fixtures are coin flips. Newcastle at home are solid (won 4-3 at Leeds, beat Palace 2-0). St. James’ Park is hostile. Quarter-Kelly reflects the uncertainty.
💰 SOLID VALUE: Everton vs Leeds - Everton to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Everton to Win @ 2.39 (41.8% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.06 (48.5% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +16.0% |
| Stake | 2.0% bankroll (Third-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Everton are the ELO-stronger team at home - Band 2 fixture with a 77-point gap (Everton 1812 vs Leeds 1735). After venue adjustment, the model gives Everton a 48.5% win probability. The bookies have them at 41.8% implied.
That’s a 16% edge on the home side.
📈 Everton Just Beat Villa
Last week’s 1-0 win at Villa Park was massive. Everton had been in freefall; that result could be a turning point. Form rating is 4.7/10 with +22 ELO over 10 games - they’re actually improving.
⚠️ Defensive Concerns
Everton are missing Branthwaite (hamstring), Keane (suspended), and had Gueye and Ndiaye at AFCON. Those players should be back now, but the defence is patchy.
Leeds are on a tear (+63 ELO over 10 games) and concede chaos (1.5 GA L10) but also score chaos (1.9 GF L10).
📊 Why Third-Kelly
The full Kelly stake on this bet is 11.5% - way too aggressive given Everton’s defensive absences. Third-Kelly (2.0%) keeps us exposed to the edge without overcommitting.
❌ Bets We’re Skipping (Form Overrides)
Burnley vs Spurs - Goals Markets
The model sees +26.6% EV on Over 3.5 goals. But Burnley average 0.9 goals scored L10. Spurs average 1.1 goals scored L10, and they’re missing Maddison (ACL, season), Kulusevski (knee), and Solanke (ankle).
Two broken attacks don’t produce fireworks. They produce 1-0 and 0-0 draws. Skip.
Everton vs Leeds - Over 2.5 Goals
We discussed hedging our Everton Win bet with Over 2.5. The problem: if this ends 1-1 or 0-0, we lose both stakes. That’s concentration risk, not hedging.
Pick one thesis and back it. We’re backing Everton’s home advantage. Skip the goals play.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool - Under 2.5 Goals
This looked good when Salah was at AFCON. But the tournament finished - Salah is back, even if there’s drama with Slot. Liverpool’s attack is restored. The 15.2% EV we calculated assumed no Salah; with him likely starting, the edge probably drops to ~5-7%.
There are cleaner plays this week. Skip.
Newcastle vs Villa - Under 3.5 Goals
Model shows +6.3% EV, but that’s barely above our 5% threshold. Newcastle just won 4-3 at Leeds. Villa games produce goals. Not enough edge to justify the allocation. Skip.
📋 Portfolio Summary
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Kelly Type | EV% | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland Win @ West Ham | 2.85 | 2.5% | Third-Kelly | +13.4% | 🔥 PREMIUM |
| Palace Win vs Chelsea | 3.48 | 1.5% | Half-Kelly | +13.2% | 💎 VALUE |
| Man City vs Wolves U2.5 | 3.05 | 2.0% | Half-Kelly | +17.0% | 💎 VALUE |
| Villa Win @ Newcastle | 3.56 | 1.0% | Quarter-Kelly | +9.9% | 💰 SOLID |
| Everton Win vs Leeds | 2.39 | 2.0% | Third-Kelly | +16.0% | 💰 SOLID |
| TOTAL | - | 9.0% | - | +13.8% avg | - |
Bankroll Allocation: 9.0%
Correlated Risk: None. All bets are in separate matches.
🎯 Super 6 Predictions
For the Sky Sports Super 6 jackpot game - optimising for exact correct score (5 points) over result (2 points)
| Match | Prediction | Confidence | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City v Wolves | 2-0 | High | City control but don’t run riot. Wolves can’t score (0.8 GF L10). Clean sheet |
| Burnley vs Spurs | 0-1 | Medium | Two broken attacks. Spurs’ quality just edges it. Cagey. |
| Crystal Palace v Chelsea | 1-1 | Medium | Two teams in crisis. Neither can finish; stalemate at Selhurst |
| Bournemouth vs Liverpool | 1-1 | Medium | Liverpool’s away form wobbling. Salah back but rusty. Tight affair. |
| Newcastle vs Aston Villa | 1-2 | High | Villa bounce back. Newcastle score but can’t hold them. |
| Arsenal v Man Utd | 2-0 | High | Arsenal’s home fortress. United away form dire; comfortable win |
Super 6 Strategy Note: These predictions prioritise the single most likely exact score (typically 10-18% probability), not betting value. Different goals, different strategies.
📊 £100 Challenge Tracker
Week 6 of the £100→£1000 challenge. Full transparency on every bet, every result.
| Week | Starting | Bets | Wins | Stake | P/L | Ending | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW18 | £100.00 | 6 | 2 | £16.00 | +£3.55 | £103.55 | +22.2% |
| MW19 | £103.55 | 6 | 1 | £10.00 | -£6.18 | £97.37 | -61.8% |
| MW20 | £97.37 | 4 | 1 | £11.00 | -£6.62 | £90.75 | -60.2% |
| MW21 | £90.75 | 5 | 2 | £9.72 | +£2.00 | £92.75 | +20.6% |
| MW22 | £92.75 | 6 | 2 | £10.50 | -£0.70 | £91.95 | -7.7% |
| MW23 | £91.95 | 5 | - | 9.5% | - | - | - |
| Cumulative | - | 27 | 8 | £56.46 | -£7.76 | £91.95 | -14.3% |
Final Thoughts
Six weeks in, and the pattern is becoming clear: the model finds value, but variance is brutal over small samples.
This week’s portfolio has a cleaner thesis than recent weeks. Sunderland are genuinely the stronger team against a leaky West Ham - this isn’t speculative underdog backing, it’s backing the ELO favourite at overlay odds. Their AFCON players are back; the 3-0 Brentford loss was an anomaly born of squad depletion.
The City Under 2.5 play is our highest-conviction bet. Gvardiol, Dias, and Stones all out. Wolves averaging 0.8 goals per game. City’s last three league games produced 4 goals total. The stars are aligned for a low-scoring City win.
Palace and Everton are both “crisis meeting crisis” fixtures where home advantage matters. The edges are real (13.2% and 16.0%), but we’re sizing conservatively because both involve broken teams finding form. Villa is our speculative away play - thin edge, but they’re in a title race and don’t lose back-to-back often.
We’ve consciously skipped a lot of “model +EV” plays this week: Burnley/Spurs goals (both teams can’t score), Liverpool Under (Salah back), Everton/Leeds Over (concentration risk). The discipline matters. The model is a guide, not a god.
Total Bankroll Exposure: 9.0% Expected Profit: +1.25% at these edge levels
Trust the process. The edge compounds over hundreds of bets, not twenty-seven. We stay the course.
All probabilities calculated using 5+ seasons of Premier League data (2,000+ matches). ELO bands updated weekly.
Don’t be an idiot. In case you’re feeling like being an idiot today, here is a page wherein I tell you not to gamble your mortgage away. Hey, that rhymes.
Odds correct at time of writing