Matchweek 22
🧠 This Week’s Best Bets
TL;DR: A green week at last! MW21 delivered +£2 profit as Fulham beat Chelsea and City drew with Brighton — both called correctly. This week’s headline is Brentford Win @ Chelsea (+66% EV) in a Band 1 fixture where the form divergence is staggering: Brentford at 8.2/10 vs Chelsea’s woeful 4.2/10. Yes, I’m a Chelsea fan. Yes, I’m backing Brentford. That’s how you know the edge is real.
💰 Total Portfolio EV: +28.5% (weighted average) 📊 Bankroll Stake: 10.5% ⚡ Summary: Chelsea’s managerial chaos meets Brentford’s best form of the season. Fulham travel to Leeds as ELO favourites despite being away. West Ham get another crack at Spurs’ abysmal home record. The model keeps finding value where the market keeps making mistakes.
See for yourself: Odds Calculator
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📊 Matchweek 21 Review
Finally. A winning week.
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Result | Score | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Sunderland Win @ Brentford | 4.36 | 3.0% | ❌ LOST | 0-3 | -3.0% |
| 🔥 Fulham Win vs Chelsea | 3.35 | 2.0% | ✅ WON | 2-1 | +4.7% |
| 💎 Everton Win vs Wolves | 1.76 | 2.5% | ❌ LOST | 1-1 Draw | -2.5% |
| 💎 Everton/Wolves O2.5 | 2.07 | 2.0% | ❌ LOST | 2 goals | -2.0% |
| 💰 Man City vs Brighton Draw | 5.13 | 1.0% | ✅ WON | 1-1 | +4.1% |
| TOTAL | - | 10.5% | 2/5 | - | +2.0% |
Fulham 2-1 Chelsea — The West London Derby Delivers
We identified +8.2% EV on Fulham in a managerless Chelsea derby. What we got was even better: a composed Fulham performance against a Blues side that looked completely lost under caretaker charge. Willian’s brace sealed it, and our conviction in the form divergence paid off handsomely.
Man City 1-1 Brighton — The Speculative Draw Lands
City’s third consecutive draw. Their defensive crisis is real — Gvardiol, Dias, and Stones all out. Brighton’s compact structure frustrated them again. At 5.13 odds, this was always a speculative play, but the tactical context screamed “cagey affair” and that’s exactly what we got.
Brentford 3-0 Sunderland — The Heartbreaker Continues
Sunderland have now cost us four times this challenge. The model keeps seeing value; they keep finding ways to lose. This time it was comprehensive — Brentford’s pressing overwhelmed them, and with 6 AFCON absences weakening their squad, they never looked like getting anything.
Everton 1-1 Wolves — The Draw That Killed Both Bets
Wolves continue their mini-revival (unbeaten in 3 now), and Everton couldn’t capitalise at home. Two goals total, so our Over 2.5 died alongside the Everton Win. These “crisis vs crisis” fixtures are unpredictable.
Net result: +£2.00 from £9.72 staked (+20.6% ROI on the week)
Two winners from five, but the right two. That’s variance working in our favour for once.
📈 The Bigger Picture
Five weeks in, and we’ve finally stopped the bleeding:
| Week | Starting | Bets | Wins | Stake | P/L | Ending | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW18 | £100.00 | 6 | 2 | £16.00 | +£3.55 | £103.55 | +22.2% |
| MW19 | £103.55 | 6 | 1 | £10.00 | -£6.18 | £97.37 | -61.8% |
| MW20 | £97.37 | 4 | 1 | £11.00 | -£6.62 | £90.75 | -60.2% |
| MW21 | £90.75 | 5 | 2 | £9.72 | +£2.00 | £92.75 | +20.6% |
| MW22 | £92.75 | 6 | - | 12.0% | - | - | - |
| Cumulative | - | 21 | 6 | £46.72 | -£7.25 | £92.75 | -15.5% |
| Current Bankroll: £92.75 | Target: £1,000.00 | Progress: -7.25% |
The drawdown has shrunk from 9.25% to 7.25%. We’re not out of the woods, but the trajectory is improving. Twenty-one bets in, six winners — that’s a 28.6% strike rate against an average implied probability of roughly 25-30%. We’re converting at roughly the rate we should be.
The edge compounds over hundreds of bets, not twenty-one. We stay the course.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Chelsea vs Brentford — Brentford to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Brentford to Win @ 4.80 (20.8% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.89 (34.6% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +66.1% |
| Stake | 2.5% bankroll (Third-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
I need to be transparent here: I’m a Chelsea fan. I’ve watched every game this season. I’ve seen the decline up close. And I’m backing Brentford to beat us.
That’s not masochism — that’s mathematics.
This is a Band 1 fixture with just 25 ELO points separating Chelsea (1898) and Brentford (1873). Chelsea have slipped below 1900 ELO for the first time since December 2024. The model treats this as essentially a coin flip — after venue adjustment, it gives Chelsea 41.7%, Draw 25.5%, and Brentford 34.6%.
The bookmakers? They’re pricing Brentford at just 20.8% implied. That’s a 66% edge.
📈 The Form Divergence Is Staggering
Brentford: 8.2/10 form rating, improving trend, +35 ELO over last 5 games. Just beat Everton 4-2 away and Sunderland 3-0 at home. Keith Andrews has this squad purring.
Chelsea: 4.2/10 form rating, stable (i.e., consistently mediocre), -16 ELO over last 10 games. Lost 2-1 at Fulham. Drew 1-1 at Man City. Beat Charlton 5-1 in the FA Cup — hardly a statement.
And here’s the kicker: Liam Rosenior was only appointed on January 6th. Six days ago. He’s had one training session before a must-win London derby. Chelsea are in chaos; Brentford are in form.
💼 Portfolio Play
I’m sizing this at third-Kelly. The edge is too big to underplay — 66% EV demands meaningful exposure. Yes, Chelsea might get a new manager bounce. Yes, Stamford Bridge is still difficult. But Brentford’s form (8.2/10) versus Chelsea’s chaos (4.2/10, six days under Rosenior) is the kind of divergence we build portfolios around.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Leeds vs Fulham — Fulham to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Fulham to Win @ 3.28 (30.5% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.53 (39.5% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +29.5% |
| Stake | 2.5% bankroll (Half-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 2 fixture with a 93-point ELO gap — and crucially, Fulham (1821) are the stronger team despite being away at Elland Road. After venue adjustment, Fulham’s win probability drops to 39.5%, but the bookies have them at just 30.5% implied.
That’s nearly 30% edge on the away favourite.
📈 Momentum Meets Momentum
Both teams are in decent form. Leeds just lost a thriller 4-3 to Newcastle — entertaining but defensively chaotic. Fulham just beat Chelsea 2-1 in the West London derby and drew 2-2 with Liverpool before that.
The difference? Fulham’s quality runs deeper. Marco Silva has this squad well-drilled, and despite losing Bassey, Iwobi, and Chukwueze to AFCON, they keep grinding out results. Leeds are exciting but leaky — exactly the profile Fulham’s controlled approach can exploit.
💼 Portfolio Play
This is our highest-conviction “standard” bet of the week. The ELO gap is clear, the form is supportive, and the price is wrong. Half-Kelly sizing reflects that confidence.
💎 VALUE PICK: Leeds vs Fulham — Over 2.5 Goals
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.11 (47.4% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.88 (53.1% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +12.0% |
| Stake | 1.5% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium-High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Band 2 fixtures see Over 2.5 goals land 53.1% of the time historically. At 2.11 odds (47.4% implied), that’s a 12% edge.
But beyond the raw numbers: Leeds games have goals. They just lost 4-3 to Newcastle. Drew 1-1 with Man United. Their Poisson expected goals show Leeds at 2.0 and Fulham at 1.9 — that’s 3.9 combined expected goals. This game screams action.
💼 Portfolio Play
This is positively correlated with our Fulham Win bet. If Fulham win 2-1, 3-1, or 3-2, both bets cash. We’re essentially saying: “We expect goals, and we expect Fulham to be on the right side of them.” The correlation is acceptable because our conviction in Fulham is high — the Over 2.5 is the cherry on top.
💎 VALUE PICK: Spurs vs West Ham — West Ham to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | West Ham to Win @ 4.67 (21.4% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 3.57 (~28% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +30.8% |
| Stake | 1.0% bankroll (Eighth-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 2 fixture with a 77-point ELO gap (Spurs 1829 vs West Ham 1752). After venue adjustment, the model gives West Ham roughly 28% win probability. The bookies have them at just 21.4% implied — that’s over 30% edge.
📈 Spurs’ Home Form Remains Dreadful
We keep coming back to this well because the market keeps ignoring it: Spurs have the second-worst home record in the entire Premier League.
At home this season: 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses. That’s 0.9 points per game. Only Wolves are worse.
The standard venue adjustment gives home teams a 10% boost. But for Spurs? That’s aggressive. Their home “advantage” is a myth this season. If we conservatively give 5% back to West Ham, they’re still around 30% to win — massively underpriced at 4.67.
⚠️ Form Override Consideration
Yes, West Ham just lost 3-0 to Wolves. Yes, that was embarrassing. But one result doesn’t change the structural reality: Spurs at home are vulnerable, and the price is wrong.
Thomas Frank is under pressure. Maddison is out for the season (ACL). Kulusevski and Solanke are injured. The wheels are coming off.
💎 VALUE PICK: Sunderland vs Crystal Palace — Sunderland to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Sunderland to Win @ 2.64 (37.9% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.40 (41.7% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +10.1% |
| Stake | 2.0% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 1 fixture — Sunderland (1818) and Palace (1835) are separated by just 17 ELO points. These teams are essentially identical by our model’s measure. After venue adjustment for Sunderland at home, they get a 41.7% win probability. The bookies have them at 37.9% implied.
That’s a 10% edge on the home side.
📈 Palace’s Collapse Is Real
Palace peaked at 1884 ELO in early December. They’ve since crashed to 1835 — a 49-point drop. Form rating 2.1/10. They just lost to Macclesfield in the FA Cup. Yes, Macclesfield. Oliver Glasner’s defensive approach has stopped working.
Sunderland, despite the 3-0 loss at Brentford, remain a quality side. They’re 7th in the table. They held Man City to 0-0. They have Granit Xhaka pulling strings in midfield. Home form has been solid all season.
⚠️ AFCON Concern
Sunderland have six AFCON absences: Reinildo, Masuaku, Sadiki, Talbi, Traoré, and Diarra. That’s significant squad depletion. We’re sizing at quarter-Kelly rather than half-Kelly to account for this uncertainty.
💰 SOLID PICK: Aston Villa vs Everton — BTTS Yes
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | BTTS Yes @ 1.87 (53.5% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.76 (56.9% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +6.4% |
| Stake | 1.0% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Band 3 fixtures (122 ELO diff) see BTTS land 56.9% of the time historically. At 1.87 odds, that’s a modest 6.4% edge.
Villa are title challengers — 2nd in the table, just 3 points behind Arsenal. They’ll create chances at home. Everton are struggling but have shown they can score against anyone (put two past Brentford before losing 4-2).
This is a small-edge bet to round out the portfolio. Not the headline, but mathematically sound.
🚫 Form Override Skips
Liverpool vs Burnley BTTS Yes (+11.4% EV)
The model says Band 7 BTTS lands 54.7% of the time. At 2.04 odds, that’s +11.4% edge.
But Burnley average 0.8 goals over their last 10 games. They simply cannot score. Liverpool’s attack is weakened (Salah at AFCON, Isak broken leg), but Burnley’s is non-existent. Scott Parker’s side will sit deep, hope for 0-0, and probably lose 1-0 or 2-0.
The model is a guide, not a god. Skip.
Everton Win @ Villa (+11.8% EV)
Mathematically appealing, but Everton are depleted. Gueye and Ndiaye at AFCON. Keane suspended. Branthwaite injured. Dewsbury-Hall injured.
Against a Villa side pushing for the title at Villa Park? This is a trap. Skip.
Forest Win vs Arsenal (+EV small)
Sean Dyche’s defensive approach might frustrate Arsenal, but backing Forest against the league leaders with declining form (3.1/10) is throwing money away. Arsenal are too good. Skip.
🚫 No Value Markets
A few popular bets that offer zero edge this week:
| Match | Bet | Odds | Why No Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool vs Burnley | Liverpool Win | 1.20 | Fair odds ~1.21. Correctly priced despite Liverpool’s issues. |
| Wolves vs Newcastle | Newcastle Win | 1.73 | Fair odds ~1.73. Market has learned from Wolves’ mini-revival. |
| Forest vs Arsenal | Arsenal Win | 1.53 | Fair odds ~1.68. Arsenal are overpriced as heavy favourites. |
| Man Utd vs Man City | Any market | Various | Derby priced efficiently. City’s CB crisis is known; no edge anywhere. |
| Brighton vs Bournemouth | Goals markets | Various | “High press vs high press = goals” narrative already priced in. |
📋 Portfolio Summary
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Kelly Type | EV% | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford Win @ Chelsea | 4.80 | 2.5% | Third-Kelly | +66.1% | 🔥 PREMIUM |
| Fulham Win @ Leeds | 3.28 | 2.5% | Quarter-Kelly | +29.5% | 🔥 PREMIUM |
| West Ham Win @ Spurs | 4.67 | 1.0% | Eighth-Kelly | +30.8% | 💎 VALUE |
| Sunderland Win vs Palace | 2.64 | 2.0% | Third-Kelly | +10.1% | 💎 VALUE |
| Leeds vs Fulham O2.5 | 2.11 | 1.5% | Quarter-Kelly | +12.0% | 💎 VALUE |
| Villa vs Everton BTTS | 1.87 | 1.0% | Quarter-Kelly | +6.4% | 💰 SOLID |
| TOTAL | - | 10.5% | - | +28.5% avg | - |
Bankroll Allocation: 10.5% of £92.75 across 6 bets
Correlated Risk: Fulham Win and Leeds/Fulham O2.5 are positively correlated. If Fulham win 2-1 or 3-1, both cash. Acceptable given our high conviction in Fulham’s quality.
🎯 Super 6 Predictions
For the Sky Sports Super 6 jackpot game — optimizing for exact correct score (5 points) over result (2 points)
| Match | Prediction | Confidence | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool vs Burnley | 2-0 | High | Liverpool’s quality tells despite Salah absence. Burnley can’t score (0.8 GF L10). Clean sheet likely. |
| Chelsea vs Brentford | 1-2 | High | Brentford’s form too good. Chelsea’s chaos too real. Tight but Bees nick it. |
| Sunderland vs Palace | 1-0 | Medium | Poisson shows 0-0 at 26% but Sunderland edge it. Low-scoring Band 1 fixture. |
| Forest vs Arsenal | 0-1 | High | Dyche makes it cagey. Arsenal’s quality tells but they won’t run riot. |
| Wolves vs Newcastle | 1-2 | Medium | Newcastle’s attack clicking (4-3 at Leeds). Wolves nick one but lose. |
| Villa vs Everton | 2-1 | High | Villa’s home quality. Everton score but can’t hold them. |
Super 6 Strategy Note: These predictions prioritize the single most likely exact score (typically 10-18% probability), not betting value. Different goals, different strategies.
📊 £100 Challenge Tracker
Week 5 of the £100→£1000 challenge. Full transparency on every bet, every result.
| Week | Starting | Bets | Wins | Stake | P/L | Ending | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW18 | £100.00 | 6 | 2 | £16.00 | +£3.55 | £103.55 | +22.2% |
| MW19 | £103.55 | 6 | 1 | £10.00 | -£6.18 | £97.37 | -61.8% |
| MW20 | £97.37 | 4 | 1 | £11.00 | -£6.62 | £90.75 | -60.2% |
| MW21 | £90.75 | 5 | 2 | £9.72 | +£2.00 | £92.75 | +20.6% |
| MW22 | £92.75 | 6 | - | 10.5% | - | - | - |
| Cumulative | - | 21 | 6 | £46.72 | -£7.25 | £92.75 | -15.5% |
Final Thoughts
Five weeks in, and we finally have a green week to show for it. Fulham beating Chelsea and the City/Brighton draw both landed — exactly the kind of underpriced outcomes the model is designed to find.
The headline this week is the Brentford bet. I need to be clear: I’m a Chelsea fan. I’ve supported them since I was a kid. And I’m backing Brentford to beat us at Stamford Bridge.
That’s not betrayal — that’s discipline. The edge is 66%. Brentford’s form is 8.2/10 vs Chelsea’s 4.2/10. Rosenior has had six days in charge. The model doesn’t care about my emotional attachment to the club; it cares about probability distributions and mispriced odds. If I can’t back against my own team when the numbers scream value, I have no business calling myself a systematic bettor.
The rest of the portfolio is solid: Fulham as ELO favourites away at Leeds, West Ham exploiting Spurs’ dreadful home record again, Sunderland in a Band 1 home fixture against a Palace side in freefall, and a goals play on Leeds/Fulham where Poisson expects fireworks.
We’ve skipped three “model +EV” plays due to form overrides: Liverpool/Burnley BTTS (Burnley can’t score), Everton Win (too depleted), and Forest Win (just no). The discipline matters.
Total Bankroll Exposure: 10.5% Expected Profit: +3.0% at these edge levels
Trust the process. The edge compounds over hundreds of bets, not twenty-one. We’re finally back in the green for a week — let’s keep it going.
All probabilities calculated using 5+ seasons of Premier League data (2,000+ matches). ELO bands updated weekly.
Don’t be an idiot. In case you’re feeling like being an idiot today, here is a page wherein I tell you not to gamble your mortgage away. Hey, that rhymes.
Odds correct at time of writing