Matchweek 21
🧠 This Week’s Best Bets
TL;DR: Another brutal week behind us — Villa’s 3-1 win was our only bright spot in MW20, and we’re now £9.30 down in the challenge. But the model keeps finding value, and this week delivers five +EV opportunities headlined by Sunderland Win @ Brentford (+48.7% EV) and Fulham Win vs Chelsea (+8.2% EV) in a West London derby against a managerless Blues side. We’re also loading up on the Man City vs Brighton draw — City have drawn their last two and Brighton frustrate everyone.
💰 Total Portfolio EV: +20.4% (weighted average) 📊 Bankroll Stake: 10.7% ⚡ Summary: Sunderland remain criminally underpriced. Fulham are flying while Chelsea are in chaos. The market keeps making the same mistakes, and we keep exploiting them.
See for yourself: Odds Calculator
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📊 Matchweek 20 Review
Three weeks. Three losing records. The variance gods are not smiling upon us.
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Result | Score | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Sunderland Win @ Spurs | 4.50 | £3.90 | ❌ LOST | 1-1 Draw | -£3.90 |
| 💰 Villa Win vs Forest | 1.75 | £2.44 | ✅ WON | 3-1 | +£1.83 |
| 💰 West Ham Win @ Wolves | 2.38 | £2.44 | ❌ LOST | 0-3 | -£2.44 |
| 💎 Man Utd Win @ Leeds | 2.63 | £2.22 | ❌ LOST | 1-1 Draw | -£2.22 |
| TOTAL | - | £11.00 | 1/4 | - | -£6.62 |
Spurs 1-1 Sunderland — So Close, Yet Again
This one stings. We identified +53% EV on Sunderland at White Hart Lane, backed by the fact that Spurs have the second-worst home record in the entire Premier League.
Tottenham somehow found form, and despite a late equaliser by Brobbey in the 80th minute, it was too late to convert into anything meaningful.
At least we got 5 points on our Super 6
Villa 3-1 Forest — The Bounce Back
Villa responded exactly as we expected after that Arsenal embarrassment. Villa closed the first and opened the second half with a goal, and while Wood pulled one back, McGinn sealed it late. Emery’s men are back on track, and at 1.75 odds we pocketed a modest +£1.83. The model saw +8% edge; the result delivered.
Wolves 3-0 West Ham — The Great Escape Begins?
We backed West Ham at +28% EV in a “crisis vs crisis” fixture. What we didn’t account for: Wolves ending their 23-game winless run with a statement performance.
This is why we reduced our stake from 4.5% to 2%.
Sometimes the team that’s been drowning all season finally learns to swim. Just our luck it happened against our pick.
Leeds 1-1 Man Utd — The Draw That Killed Everyone
Man Utd at +24.6% EV looked solid on paper. Band 3 fixture, clear ELO advantage, Leeds at home but vulnerable. Instead, we got a 1-1 draw that served nobody.
Especially not Amorim, marking the second manager to lose his Premier League job just five days into the year.
Net result: -£6.62 from £11.00 staked (-60.2% ROI on the week)
📈 The Bigger Picture
Four weeks in, and we’re learning what variance really means:
| Week | Starting | Bets | Wins | Stake | P/L | Ending | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW18 | £100.00 | 6 | 2 | £16.00 | +£3.55 | £103.55 | +22.2% |
| MW19 | £103.55 | 6 | 1 | £10.00 | -£6.18 | £97.37 | -61.8% |
| MW20 | £97.37 | 4 | 1 | £11.00 | -£6.62 | £90.75 | -60.2% |
| MW21 | £90.75 | 5 | - | 10.7% | - | - | - |
| Cumulative | - | 16 | 4 | £37.00 | -£9.25 | £90.75 | -25.0% |
Current Bankroll: £90.75 Target: £1,000.00 Progress: -9.25%
Look, I’m not going to sugarcoat this. Four weeks in, 4 winners from 16 bets, and we’re down nearly a tenner. That’s a 25% win rate against an average implied probability of roughly 30-35%.
But here’s what I keep coming back to: the average EV on our bets has been north of +25%. Over 16 bets, that edge doesn’t guarantee anything. Over 160 bets, it starts to matter. Over 1,600 bets, it’s almost certainly profitable.
We’re building a sample size. The process continues.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Brentford vs Sunderland — Sunderland to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Sunderland to Win @ 4.36 (22.9% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.93 (34.1% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +48.7% |
| Stake | 3.0% bankroll (£2.72) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Yes, I’m backing Sunderland again. Yes, they’ve burned us twice. No, I’m not tilting.
This is a Band 1 fixture with just 37 ELO points separating Brentford (1864) and Sunderland (1827). The model treats this as essentially a coin flip — and after venue adjustment, it gives Sunderland a 34.1% win probability. The bookmakers? They’re pricing Sunderland at just 22.9% implied.
That’s a 48.7% edge. The market is still treating Sunderland like Championship fodder, and they keep proving they’re not.
💼 Portfolio Play
This is our anchor bet. Highest conviction, highest stake. If Sunderland finally convert one of these opportunities, we’re looking at a £11.86 return. If they don’t, we reload for MW22 and trust the process.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Fulham vs Chelsea — Fulham to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Fulham to Win @ 3.35 (29.9% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 3.10 (32.3% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +8.2% |
| Stake | 2.0% bankroll (£1.82) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This might actually be our highest conviction bet of the week, despite the lower EV percentage.
Chelsea are managerless. Enzo Maresca departed on January 1st after just 18 months, following a run of 1 win in 7 Premier League games. Willy Caballero is caretaking.
Meanwhile, Fulham are flying. Form rating 7.0/10 (improving). +20 ELO over the last 10 games. Marco Silva has this team playing with genuine belief, and his record against big teams is excellent.
⚽ The Derby Factor
West London derbies are always spicy, but this one has a particular edge. Chelsea’s players don’t know what system they’re playing. The fans are frustrated. The hierarchy is in flux. Fulham, by contrast, have stability, momentum, and home advantage.
The model only sees +8.2% edge because ELO doesn’t capture “managerless chaos.” The qualitative factors scream this is better than the numbers suggest.
💼 Portfolio Play
Second conviction play. Uncorrelated with our other bets. This is the kind of spot where betting feels smart rather than just mathematically correct.
💎 VALUE PICK: Everton vs Wolves — Everton to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Everton to Win @ 1.76 (56.8% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.62 (61.8% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +8.8% |
| Stake | 2.5% bankroll (£2.27) |
| Confidence | Medium-High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 4 fixture with a 157-point ELO gap (Everton 1812 vs Wolves 1655). After venue adjustment, the model gives Everton a 61.8% win probability — significantly higher than the bookmakers’ 56.8% implied.
Yes, Wolves just beat West Ham 3-0. Their first win in 24 games. The market has reacted by shortening their odds everywhere. But one win doesn’t erase 23 games of being genuinely terrible.
📈 The Moyes Effect
David Moyes has steadied Everton since returning. They’re compact, disciplined, hard to beat at Goodison. Rob Edwards’ Wolves play aggressive pressing football that can leave gaps — exactly the kind of approach Moyes’ counter-attacking setup can exploit.
💼 Portfolio Play
Solid value bet. Correlated slightly with our Over 2.5 play on the same fixture (see below), but not problematically so — Everton winning 2-1 or 3-0 cashes both.
💎 VALUE PICK: Everton vs Wolves — Over 2.5 Goals
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.07 (48.3% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.72 (58.1% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +20.2% |
| Stake | 2.0% bankroll (£1.82) |
| Confidence | Medium-High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Band 4 fixtures hit Over 2.5 58.1% of the time historically. At 2.07 odds (48.3% implied), that’s a 20.2% edge.
But beyond the raw numbers: Wolves just scored 3 for the first time all season. Everton just conceded 4 to Brentford. Both defences are actively leaking. Rob Edwards plays aggressive pressing football that creates chances at both ends.
The Managerial Styles database on Edwards:
“Philosophy: aggressive pressing, two-striker partnerships, wing-back dependent”
That’s not a recipe for clean sheets. This game has goals written all over it.
💰 SOLID PICK: Man City vs Brighton — Draw
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Draw @ 5.13 (19.5% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 4.41 (22.7% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +16.4% |
| Stake | 1.2% bankroll (£1.09) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
It’s not often we back draws, but this one makes sense.
Man City have drawn their last two Premier League games: 0-0 at Sunderland, 1-1 vs Chelsea. They’re still excellent, but they’re not the relentless winning machine of previous seasons. At home, they’re vulnerable to teams that stay compact and frustrate.
Brighton under Fabian Hürzeler are exactly that kind of team. The Managerial Styles database notes:
“Can beat anyone, can lose to anyone. Avoid when heavy favorites.” “Games rarely stay same pattern — great for live betting”
Brighton won’t roll over, but they probably won’t win either. A 1-1 or 2-2 draw feels very plausible, and at 5.13 we’re getting excellent odds on a 22.7% probability event.
💼 Portfolio Play
Speculative but mathematically sound. If City’s mini-wobble continues, this could be a nice payout. If City win 3-0, we lose a quid. Acceptable risk.
🚫 Value Identified But Avoided
The model found several +EV opportunities that we’re consciously skipping. Transparency demands we explain why:
West Ham Win vs Forest (+28.1% EV)
The math screams value. A 41.2% model probability against 32.2% implied. But this is “crisis vs crisis” — two teams managed by defensive pragmatists (Nuno and Dyche) who will both set up to avoid losing rather than to win.
The Managerial Styles database on Nuno:
“Nuno teams cede possession, defend first. Low-scoring typical.” “Games often cagey first half, explode second”
And on Dyche (Forest):
“Direct, physical, defensive-first” “U2.5, Forest set-piece goals, home underdogs”
When two managers both prioritise not losing, you get a lot of 0-0 and 1-1 draws. The +28% EV assumes historical Band 1 patterns hold, but tactical context suggests the draw is far more likely than the model thinks. Pass.
Liverpool Win @ Arsenal (+33.6% EV)
On paper, this looks incredible. Band 2 fixture, Liverpool at 25.7% model probability vs 19.2% implied. Massive edge.
But Liverpool’s form has collapsed. Their ELO has dropped 37 points in the last 10 games. They’re travelling to the Emirates, where Arsenal have conceded just 5 goals all season. Arteta’s set-piece fortress, the crowd, the momentum after dismantling Villa 4-1 — this is not the spot to back a struggling Liverpool side.
If Liverpool were at home, maybe. At the Emirates? Hard pass.
Newcastle/Leeds Over 2.5 (+5.1% EV)
Marginal edge, not worth the allocation. Leeds games do tend to have goals (3.3 average), but at just +5.1% we’re barely being compensated for the variance. Cut to preserve bankroll space for higher-conviction plays.
Brighton Win @ City (+11.4% EV)
Real value, but we’re already exposed to this match via the Draw bet. Brighton could win, but backing both Draw AND Brighton Win creates messy correlation. Keeping the Draw only for cleaner portfolio management.
📋 Portfolio Summary
| Bet | Odds | Stake (Kelly%) | EV% | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland Win @ Brentford | 4.36 | 3.0% | +48.7% | 🔥 PREMIUM |
| Fulham Win vs Chelsea | 3.35 | 2.0% | +8.2% | 🔥 PREMIUM |
| Everton Win vs Wolves | 1.76 | 2.5% | +8.8% | 💎 VALUE |
| Everton/Wolves O2.5 | 2.07 | 2.0% | +20.2% | 💎 VALUE |
| Man City vs Brighton Draw | 5.13 | 1.0% | +16.4% | 💰 SOLID |
| TOTAL | - | 10% | +20.4% avg | - |
Bankroll Allocation: 10% of £90.75 = £9.75 across 5 bets
Correlated Risk: Everton Win and Everton/Wolves O2.5 have positive correlation (if Everton win 3-1, both cash). Acceptable given combined stake of 4.5%.
🎯 Super 6 Predictions
For the Sky Sports Super 6 jackpot game — optimizing for exact correct score (5 points) over result (2 points)
| Match | Prediction | Confidence | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City vs Brighton | 1-1 | Medium | City wobbling (drew last 2). Brighton compact away. Tight affair. |
| Bournemouth vs Spurs | 2-1 | Medium | Iraola’s fast starters at home. Spurs awful away record continues. |
| Fulham vs Chelsea | 2-1 | High | Fulham momentum, Chelsea managerless chaos. Derby factor. |
| Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa | 1-2 | High | Villa bounce back. Palace form collapsed (-44 ELO L10). |
| Burnley vs Man Utd | 0-1 | Medium | Cagey affair. United’s quality just edges it. Burnley can’t score (0.8 GF L10). |
| Newcastle vs Leeds | 2-1 | High | Newcastle home strength. Leeds chaotic but concede on the road. |
Super 6 Strategy Note: These predictions prioritize the single most likely exact score (typically 10-18% probability), not betting value. Different goals, different strategies.
📊 £100 Challenge Tracker
Week 4 of the £100→£1000 challenge. Full transparency on every bet, every result.
| Week | Starting | Bets | Wins | Stake | P/L | Ending | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW18 | £100.00 | 6 | 2 | £16.00 | +£3.55 | £103.55 | +22.2% |
| MW19 | £103.55 | 6 | 1 | £10.00 | -£6.18 | £97.37 | -61.8% |
| MW20 | £97.37 | 4 | 1 | £11.00 | -£6.62 | £90.75 | -60.2% |
| MW21 | £90.75 | 5 | - | £9.72 | - | - | - |
| Cumulative | - | 17 | 4 | £36.72 | -£9.25 | £90.75 | -25.2% |
Final Thoughts
Four weeks in, and we’re staring at a 25% drawdown. Not ideal. Not panic-inducing either.
The edge has been there every week. Villa at Chelsea (+28% EV) — won. Sunderland at Spurs (+53% EV) — drew when we needed a win. West Ham at Wolves (+28% EV) — Wolves picked that exact moment to end their 23-game winless run. The model isn’t broken; variance is just doing variance things.
This week’s portfolio is tight: five bets, 10.7% exposure, +20.4% weighted EV. The conviction plays are Sunderland (the market keeps disrespecting them) and Fulham (managerless Chelsea in a derby). The value plays on Everton exploit a team that just won their first game in 24 and somehow shortened in the market. The City/Brighton draw is speculative but mathematically sound.
We’ve also consciously avoided £6+ of potential stakes on West Ham, Liverpool, and Newcastle — bets where the model saw value but the tactical context screamed caution. That discipline matters. The model is a guide, not a god.
The edge compounds over hundreds of bets, not seventeen. We stay the course.
Total Bankroll Exposure: 10.7% Expected Profit: +2.0% at these edge levels
All probabilities calculated using 5+ seasons of Premier League data (2,000+ matches). ELO bands updated weekly.
Don’t be an idiot. In case you’re feeling like being an idiot today, here is a page wherein I tell you not to gamble your mortgage away. Hey, that rhymes.
Odds correct at time of writing