Matchweek 20
🧠 This Week’s Best Bets
TL;DR: The New Year wasn’t kind to us. Arsenal demolished Villa 4-1, ending their 11-game winning streak. Our Sunderland Win, Fulham Win, and U2.5/Bournemouth win all fell short. We’re now £7.18 down in the challenge, but the process continues. This week delivers four +EV opportunities headlined by Sunderland Win @ Spurs (+53% EV) — Spurs have the second-worst home record in the entire Premier League.
💰 Total Portfolio EV: +31% (weighted average) 📊 Bankroll Stake: 13.0% ⚡ Summary: We’re backing home underdogs and crisis clubs. The model sees massive value in Sunderland at White Hart Lane, West Ham at Wolves, and Villa’s bounce-back against Forest.
See for yourself: Odds Calculator
Consider following me on X for live-play updates and betting thoughts
📊 Matchweek 19 Review
A brutal week. Six bets with just one winner, and even then it was an extra-time goal in the Arsenal v Villa game that did nothing for our main bet of the week. Sometimes variance just does its thing. This week it did it emphatically.
Bad ebening ):
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Result | Score | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Villa Win @ Arsenal | 6.72 | 2.5% | ❌ LOST | Arsenal 4-1 Villa | -£2.50 |
| 🔥 Sunderland Win vs Man City | 7.08 | 1.0% | ❌ LOST | 0-0 Draw | -£1.00 |
| 💎 BTTS Yes Arsenal/Villa | 2.04 | 2.0% | ✅ WON | 4-1 (both scored) | +3.82 |
| 💎 Bournemouth Win @ Chelsea | 5.64 | 1.5% | ❌ LOST | 2-2 Draw | -£1.50 |
| 💎 Under 2.5 Chelsea/Bournemouth | 2.39 | 1.5% | ❌ LOST | 4 goals | -1.50 |
| 💎 Fulham Win @ Palace | 3.39 | 1.5% | ❌ LOST | 1-1 Draw | -£1.50 |
| TOTAL | - | 10% | 1/6 | - | -£6.18 |
Arsenal 4-1 Aston Villa — The Big One That Burned Us
We backed Villa at 6.72 odds with conviction. Eleven straight wins. Form rating 7.3/10. They’d beaten Arsenal at Villa Park just 24 days earlier. The model had them at 25.8% vs 14.9% implied — that’s +73% edge.
What happened? Arsenal happened. A rampant second-half display that included Gabriel bundling home from a corner (Martinez’s howler), Zubimendi converting Odegaard’s defence-splitting pass, Trossard smashing one from distance, and Gabriel Jesus scoring his first Premier League goal since New Year’s Day 2025 within a minute of coming on. Villa got a late consolation through Watkins, but the damage was done.
Form override? Maybe we should have seen it. Arsenal were at home, top of the league, desperate to avenge that Villa Park defeat. But the model doesn’t account for “revenge narrative” — and frankly, neither should it. Over hundreds of bets, 25.8% shots will miss more often than they hit. This was one of those misses.
Sunderland 0-0 Manchester City — The One That Got Away
We had Sunderland Win at 7.08. What actually happened? Sunderland put in a heroic defensive display, holding City to a goalless draw at the Stadium of Light. Robin Roefs made crucial saves from Haaland, Savinho, and Gvardiol (who hit the post from 12 yards). Sunderland remain unbeaten at home all season — 10 games without defeat.
The frustrating part? This was exactly the kind of performance we expected. Sunderland were competitive, disciplined, created chances. If Trai Hume’s header goes a few inches lower, if Mayenda’s strike finds the corner, we’re celebrating. Instead, it’s a “what if” that pays nothing.
Pep said it: “Take the point. Second half was excellent. We created enough — Savinho, Jeremy, Josko, Phil, Erling. We had a lot but unfortunately we could not do it.” City couldn’t break them down. Sunderland were that good.
Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham — Cairney’s Late Strike
Fulham were the better team. Jimenez hit the post. They had 59% possession. Our model had Fulham at 29.5% vs 24% implied — real edge. Mateta headed Palace ahead against the run of play (his first open-play goal in 8 games), but Cairney came off the bench to curl home an absolute beauty with 10 minutes left.
Henderson then made a point-blank save from Castagne, and Andersen blazed over from 6 yards. Fulham could easily have won this 2-1 or 3-1. The draw killed us.
Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth — The Chaos That Followed
This was Maresca’s last game — he left Chelsea by mutual consent on January 1st. The match itself was chaotic: 2-2, four goals, our Under 2.5 bet dead. Bournemouth didn’t win (our other bet), but they took a point and showed the resilience that’s kept them mid-table despite their defensive issues.
Net result: -£6.88 from £9.82 staked (-70% ROI on the week)
One winner (BTTS Arsenal/Villa — at least both teams scored in that 4-1 thrashing). A week to forget, but we don’t hide from it.
📈 The Bigger Picture
Two weeks in:
- Week 1 (MW18): +£3.55 (+21.5% ROI)
- Week 2 (MW19): -£6.18 (-61.8% ROI)
- Cumulative: -£2.67 (-10.3% ROI)
- Current Bankroll: £97.32
This is what variance looks like. Average edge on our MW19 bets was +31%. Over a 6-bet sample against that edge, losing 5 of 6 happens. The math says so.
The edge compounds over hundreds of bets, not twelve. We stay the course.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Tottenham vs Sunderland — Sunderland to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Sunderland to Win @ 4.50 (22.2% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.94 (34.0% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +53.0% |
| Stake | 4.0% bankroll (Half-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 1 fixture with just a 14-point ELO gap (Spurs 1840 vs Sunderland 1826). That’s essentially nothing — these teams are rated identically by the model. In Band 1, the weaker away team wins 34.0% of the time after venue adjustment. The bookies have Sunderland at just 22.2% implied — that’s a 53% edge.
📈 Spurs’ Home Form Is Abysmal
Here’s the critical insight: Spurs have the second-worst home record in the entire Premier League.
At home this season: 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses = 0.83 points per game. Only Wolves (0.56 PPG) are worse.
Meanwhile, Spurs away? 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses = 2.60 PPG. That’s the best away record in the league.
The market prices Spurs as heavy favourites because of their name, their squad value, their away form. But at White Hart Lane? They’ve been dreadful. The fans have been booing Thomas Frank on multiple occasions. The atmosphere is toxic.
⚽ Sunderland’s Fortress
Sunderland are unbeaten at home all season (10 games). They just held Man City to 0-0 — a result that saw Pep call them “excellent.” Régis Le Bris has this young squad playing with discipline, intensity, and genuine belief.
The model says Sunderland win 34% of the time. At 4.50 odds, we’d only need them to win 22% of the time to break even. That gap is massive.
💼 Portfolio Play
This is our conviction play of the week. Half-Kelly sizing reflects the enormous edge we’re seeing.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Wolves vs West Ham — West Ham to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | West Ham to Win @ 2.88 (34.7% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.11 (47.4% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +36.5% |
| Stake | 4.5% bankroll (Half-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 3 fixture with a 104-point ELO gap (West Ham 1769 vs Wolves 1665). In Band 3, the stronger away team wins 47.4% of the time after venue adjustment. The bookies have West Ham at just 34.7% — that’s a 36.5% edge.
📈 Battle of the Crisis Clubs
Yes, both teams are in crisis. West Ham are 8 without a win. Wolves are 23 without a win — the worst start in Premier League history.
But here’s the thing: the ELO gap is real. Wolves have conceded 40 goals — the worst defence in the league. West Ham have scored in 14 of their last 17 away games. When two bad teams meet, the less bad team still has the edge.
The bookies are pricing this like a coin flip. The model disagrees strongly.
⚠️ Stake Reduction Note
We’re reducing this from full Half-Kelly (4.5%) to 2.5% due to the “crisis vs crisis” nature of this fixture. The model sees clear value in the ELO gap, but when both teams are in freefall — West Ham 8 without a win, Wolves 23 without a win — historical patterns may not capture the chaos.
These games often end in damp squib draws where neither side shows any quality. The edge is real, but the confidence isn’t; we’re splitting the difference.
💰 SOLID PICK: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest — Villa to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Aston Villa to Win @ 1.75 (57.1% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.62 (61.7% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +8.0% |
| Stake | 2.5% bankroll (Half-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 4 fixture with a 151-point ELO gap (Villa 1940 vs Forest 1789). In Band 4, the stronger home team wins 61.7% of the time after venue adjustment. The bookies have Villa at just 57.1% — that’s an 8% edge.
📈 The Bounce-Back Narrative
Yes, Villa just got thrashed 4-1. Their 11-game winning streak is over. Emery will be demanding a response.
But here’s the key: the bookies are pricing Villa “as if they’re mid-table fodder” — their words, not mine. Villa are still 3rd in the table, still a quality side, still at home.
Forest, meanwhile, have scored just 1 goal in their last 3 games. Their xG has dried up. This is a Villa team that will be desperate to bounce back against opposition that can’t score.
💎 VALUE PICK: Leeds vs Manchester United — Man Utd to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Man Utd to Win @ 2.63 (38.0% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.11 (47.4% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +24.6% |
| Stake | 2.0% bankroll (Reduced Half-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 3 fixture with a 128-point ELO gap (Man Utd 1862 vs Leeds 1734). In Band 3, the stronger away team wins 47.4% of the time after venue adjustment. The bookies have United at just 38.0% — that’s a 24.6% edge.
⚠️ Form Override Concern
We’re reducing stake here because Leeds’ form is concerning. They just held Liverpool to 0-0 at Anfield — a masterclass defensive display. They’re unbeaten in 5 league games. Calvert-Lewin has 7 goals in his last 6 appearances.
Man Utd, meanwhile, are missing Bruno Fernandes (hamstring) and drew 1-1 with winless Wolves last time out.
The model says 47.4%. The form says be cautious. We’re splitting the difference with reduced sizing.
🚫 Form Override Skips
| Match | Bet | Model EV | Why Skip |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle vs Palace | Palace Win | +61.5% | Palace winless in 5, Newcastle just won 3-1 at Burnley. Model screams value, form screams trap. |
| Bournemouth vs Arsenal | Bournemouth Win | +35.2% | Bournemouth conceding 2.25 goals per 90 in last 12 games. Arsenal ruthless (just put 4 past Villa). |
| Man City vs Chelsea | Chelsea Win | +31.4% | Chelsea are managerless. Maresca left on Jan 1. Going to the Etihad in chaos? No thanks. |
The model finds value in all three. Our eyes say otherwise. Form overrides work.
💼 Portfolio Summary
| Bet | Odds | Stake | EV% | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Sunderland Win @ Spurs | 4.50 | 4.0% | +53.0% | Premium (Half-Kelly) |
| 🔥 West Ham Win @ Wolves | 2.88 | 2.5% | +36.5% | Premium (Quarter-Kelly) |
| 💰 Villa Win vs Forest | 1.75 | 2.5% | +8.0% | Solid (Half-Kelly) |
| 💎 Man Utd Win @ Leeds | 2.63 | 2.0% | +24.6% | Value (Reduced) |
| TOTAL | - | 11.0% | +31% avg | - |
🧮 Total Bankroll Staked: 11.0% 💰 Portfolio EV: +31% (weighted average) ⚖️ Risk Level: Moderate-High 🧭 Strategy: Two premium longshots (Sunderland, West Ham) anchor the portfolio. Villa and Man Utd provide shorter-odds diversification.
🎯 Super 6 Predictions
For the Sky Sports Super 6 jackpot game — optimizing for exact correct score (5 points) over result (2 points)
| Match | Prediction | Confidence | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds vs Man Utd | 1-1 | Medium | Leeds’ defensive form holds (held Liverpool 0-0); United lack cutting edge without Bruno. |
| Fulham vs Liverpool | 1-2 | High | Liverpool’s quality tells despite recent draws; Fulham score but can’t hold them. |
| Newcastle vs Palace | 2-0 | High | Newcastle’s home quality; Palace winless in 5 and can’t score (4 games without a goal at home vs Fulham). |
| Spurs vs Sunderland | 1-1 | Medium | Spurs’ dreadful home form (2nd worst in league) meets Sunderland’s defensive resilience. |
| Everton vs Brentford | 0-1 | Medium | Goal-shy fixture; Brentford’s away form edges it. Everton struggle to score at home. |
| Man City vs Chelsea | 2-0 | High | City’s home dominance; Chelsea managerless and in chaos. Comfortable City win. |
Super 6 Strategy Note: These predictions prioritize the single most likely exact score (typically 10-18% probability), not betting value. Different goals, different strategies.
📊 £100 Challenge Tracker
Week 3 of the £100→£1000 challenge. Full transparency on every bet, every result.
| Week | Starting | Bets | Wins | Stake | P/L | Ending | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW18 | £100.00 | 6 | 2 | £16.00 | +£3.50 | £103.50 | +21.5% |
| MW19 | £103.50 | 6 | 1 | £10.00 | -£6.18 | £97.32 | -61.8% |
| MW20 | £97.32 | 4 | - | 11.0% | - | - | - |
| Cumulative | - | 12 | 3 | £25.82 | -2.67 | £97.32 | -10.3% |
Final Thoughts
Week 2 hurt. No sugarcoating it — 1/6 winners, roughly £6 down. Villa getting thrashed 4-1 was the big one. We had them at +73% EV and they got demolished.
But here’s the thing: we’re not chasing. We’re not doubling down. We’re not abandoning the process because of one bad week.
The average edge on our MW19 bets was +31%. Over 6 bets, that edge doesn’t guarantee anything. Over 600 bets, it does. We’re building a sample size.
This week, the value screams Sunderland — Spurs have the second-worst home record in the league and Sunderland are rated identically by ELO. West Ham face a Wolves side that hasn’t won all season. Villa will be desperate to respond after that Arsenal embarrassment.
The form overrides saved us from three traps: Palace at Newcastle (despite +61% EV), Bournemouth vs Arsenal’s ruthless attack, and Chelsea going managerless to the Etihad. The model is a guide, not a god.
Trust the process. The edge compounds over hundreds of bets, not twelve.
Total Bankroll Exposure: 11.0% Expected Profit: +4.0% at these edge levels
All probabilities calculated using 5+ seasons of Premier League data (2,000+ matches). ELO bands updated weekly.
Don’t be an idiot. In case you’re feeling like being an idiot today, here is a page wherein I tell you not to gamble your mortgage away. Hey, that rhymes.
Odds correct at time of writing