Matchweek 19
🧠 This Week’s Best Bets
TL;DR: New Year’s Eve football delivers a loaded slate with nine +EV opportunities across six fixtures. The headline play is Aston Villa to Win @ Arsenal (+73.4% EV) — the bookies continue to undervalue Villa’s historic 11-game winning streak while Arsenal wobble with injuries. We’re also backing Sunderland @ Man City as a quarter-Kelly play in a Band 5 fixture where the home underdog offers massive overlay.
💰 Total Portfolio EV: +31.2% (weighted average) 📊 Bankroll Stake: 15.0% (capped) ⚡ Summary: Villa’s form is undeniable — 11 straight wins, equalizing a 114-year club record. The market keeps pricing them based on reputation rather than reality. Two premium plays, four value plays, and three solid opportunities anchor a well-diversified portfolio.
See for yourself: Odds Calculator
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📊 Matchweek 18 Review
A week that swung wildly — five losses, two winners, but the winners were exactly the bets that mattered most.
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Result | Score | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Villa Win @ Chelsea | 4.20 | £4.00 | ✅ WON | Chelsea 1-2 | +£12.80 |
| 🔥 Spurs Win @ Palace | 2.75 | £1.00 | ✅ WON | Palace 0-1 | +£1.75 |
| 🔥 Sunderland Win vs Leeds | 2.51 | £5.00 | ❌ LOST | 1-1 Draw | -£5.00 |
| 💎 Sunderland/Leeds O2.5 | 2.18 | £2.50 | ❌ LOST | 2 goals | -£2.50 |
| 💎 Liverpool/Wolves U2.5 | 2.92 | £2.00 | ❌ LOST | 3 goals | -£2.00 |
| 💰 West Ham Win vs Fulham | 2.66 | £1.50 | ❌ LOST | 0-1 | -£1.50 |
| TOTAL | - | £16.00 | 2/6 | - | +£3.55 |
The highlight reel started with Villa. Ollie Watkins came off the bench to score twice — the equaliser in the 63rd minute and the winner via header in the 84th — as Villa completed another remarkable comeback at Stamford Bridge. That’s 11 straight wins now, equalling the club record from 1910. Chelsea went ahead through Joao Pedro’s deflected goal from a Reece James corner, but Unai Emery’s tactical switch at half-time proved decisive. Watkins’ introduction changed everything. At 3.99 odds, our conviction in Villa’s form paid handsomely: +£11.96 return on a £4 stake.
Spurs’ gritty win at Palace was equally satisfying. Archie Gray’s first-ever senior goal — a 42nd-minute header — proved the difference in a tight London derby. Palace had chances (Mateta header over, Devenny blaze over) but couldn’t convert. Thomas Frank needed this result after a dire run of form, and at 2.75 odds we pocketed another +£1.75.
The painful misses tell a different story. Sunderland dominated Leeds (14 shots, 1.39 xG) but Alderete’s header hit the crossbar via Verbruggen’s fingertips. A 1-1 draw killed both our Sunderland Win and Over 2.5 bets — Calvert-Lewin’s 47th-minute equaliser after Xhaka’s opener wasn’t enough for three goals. Liverpool beat Wolves 2-1 (three goals, killing our Under 2.5), and Fulham’s solitary goal at West Ham completed the clean sweep of losing picks.
Net result: +£3.55 from £16 staked (+22.2% ROI on the week)
The model found value. Villa and Spurs delivered. The variance on the other four swings balanced out. This is exactly how the long game works.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Arsenal vs Aston Villa — Villa to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Aston Villa to Win @ 6.72 (14.9% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 3.87 (25.8% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +73.4% |
| Stake | 2.4% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 2 fixture with a 99-point ELO gap (Arsenal 2039, Rank #1 vs Villa 1940, Rank #4). In Band 2, the weaker team wins 28.74% of the time before venue adjustment. With Villa travelling away, we apply the 0.90× away multiplier and normalise to get a 25.8% probability. The bookmakers have Villa at just 14.9% implied — that’s a 73% edge.
📈 Form Override: Villa Are Flying
I’ve been calling this out for weeks: the bookies keep undervaluing Villa. They’re now on an 11-game winning streak — the club’s best run since 1910. Form rating 7.3/10. +51 ELO over 10 games. They’ve beaten Chelsea 2-1 (Saturday), Man Utd 2-1, Arsenal 2-1 at Villa Park earlier this season, Man City 1-0, and Liverpool 2-0 at Anfield. Unai Emery has this squad purring.
Arsenal, meanwhile, are solid but wobbling. Form rating 5.0/10 (stable, not surging). They needed a 90+4’ Saka goal to beat Brighton 2-1 on Saturday after Declan Rice’s own goal had them level. They’re missing key players, and while they sit top of the table, their margin is shrinking. Villa are now just 3 points behind.
The market prices this as a formality for Arsenal at home. The ELO data and current form both say Villa have a genuine chance. At 6.72, we’re getting enormous overlay on the form team of Europe.
🏥 Team News
Arsenal have Gabriel Magalhães (thigh) and Ben White (hamstring) both out. Saliba has returned but the defensive depth is stretched. Villa are unaffected by AFCON and have a full-strength squad — Watkins, Rogers, Tielemans, Kamara all fit. The contrast in squad health favours the visitors.
💼 Portfolio Play
This is our conviction play of the week — but at 6.72 odds we’re sizing it as Quarter-Kelly to manage variance. The edge is enormous, but Villa need to actually win at the Emirates, which is never easy. The maths says go for it; risk management says size appropriately.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Sunderland vs Man City — Sunderland to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Sunderland to Win @ 7.08 (14.1% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 4.81 (20.8% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +47.3% |
| Stake | 1.0% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 5 fixture with a 210-point ELO gap (Man City 2031 vs Sunderland 1821). In Band 5, the weaker team wins 18.22% of the time. With Sunderland at home, we apply the 1.102× home multiplier and get 20.8% probability. At 7.08 odds (14.1% implied), that’s a 47% edge.
📈 The Case For Sunderland
Quantitatively, the maths is screaming value. Sunderland are unbeaten at home all season in the Premier League. They’re 7th in the table with 28 points — the youngest squad in the league under Régis Le Bris. They drew 1-1 with Leeds on Saturday despite dominating (14 shots, crossbar hit).
But qualitatively, this is Man City on an 8-game winning streak in all competitions. Form rating 7.3/10. +27 ELO over 10 games. Haaland has 13 Premier League goals. Cherki just scored the winner at Forest. They’re 2 points behind Arsenal with momentum.
This is a classic “longshot with edge” play. The model says Sunderland win 21% of the time — roughly one in five. At 7.08 odds, we’d only need them to win 14% of the time to break even. That gap is our edge.
💼 Portfolio Play
Quarter-Kelly sizing at your instruction. This is mathematically +EV but City’s form makes it a genuine longshot. We’re not betting the farm, but we’re not ignoring the edge either.
💎 VALUE PLAY: Arsenal vs Aston Villa — BTTS Yes
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | BTTS Yes @ 2.04 (49.0% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.79 (55.8% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +13.9% |
| Stake | 1.9% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Band 2 fixtures see BTTS land 55.84% of the time historically. Villa have scored in every Premier League game during their 11-game winning streak. Arsenal have scored in their last 8 at home. At 2.04 odds, this is solid value regardless of who wins.
This provides nice correlation with our Villa Win bet — if Villa win 2-1 or 3-2, both bets cash. But BTTS can also land with an Arsenal win, giving us partial coverage.
💎 VALUE PLAY: Chelsea vs Bournemouth — Bournemouth to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Bournemouth to Win @ 5.64 (17.7% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 4.50 (22.2% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +25.2% |
| Stake | 1.4% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 3 fixture with a 108-point ELO gap (Chelsea 1904 vs Bournemouth 1796). In Band 3, the weaker team wins 24.75% of the time. After venue adjustment for Bournemouth away, we get 22.2% win probability. At 5.64 odds, there’s 25% edge.
Chelsea just lost at home to Villa. Their form rating is 3.5/10 (declining). Bournemouth are struggling too (3.8/10 form, -35 ELO over 10 games), but they’ve shown they can score against anyone — including 4-4 at Old Trafford. This is a “both sides vulnerable” play where the away price is too generous.
💎 VALUE PLAY: Chelsea vs Bournemouth — Under 2.5 Goals
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.39 (41.8% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.08 (48.2% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +15.1% |
| Stake | 1.4% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Band 3 Under 2.5 lands 48.16% of the time (100% - 51.84% Over 2.5). Chelsea have been struggling to score consistently (1.4 GF over last 10). Bournemouth are missing both senior strikers (Ünal ACL, Evanilson metatarsal). This could be a tight, low-scoring affair — exactly the profile for Under 2.5 at 2.39.
💎 VALUE PLAY: Crystal Palace vs Fulham — Fulham to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Fulham to Win @ 3.39 (29.5% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.94 (34.0% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +15.3% |
| Stake | 1.4% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 1 fixture — essentially evenly-matched teams with just 36 ELO points separating them (Palace 1845 vs Fulham 1809). In Band 1, the weaker away team wins 37.24% before venue adjustment. After applying the 0.90× away multiplier and normalising, Fulham’s probability drops to 34.0%. The bookmakers have them at 29.5% implied — that’s 15% edge.
Palace have lost three straight league games. Form rating 2.8/10, -29 ELO over 10 games. Oliver Glasner is under pressure and needs January reinforcements. Fulham, meanwhile, just won 1-0 at West Ham (Muniz header). They’re in better shape despite similar league positions.
💰 SOLID VALUE: Forest vs Everton — Over 2.5 Goals
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.16 (46.3% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.84 (54.5% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +17.7% |
| Stake | SKIP |
| Confidence | Low — FORM OVERRIDE |
⚠️ Form Override Warning
The model says +17.7% EV on Over 2.5, but I’m not touching this. Here’s why:
Forest average 1.3 goals scored over their last 10 games. Everton average 0.8 goals scored over their last 10 games. Combined, that’s 2.1 goals per game — well under 2.5. The Burnley 0-0 Everton result on Saturday proves the point: two goal-shy teams cancelled out with 0.4 xG combined.
The band probability (54.5% Over 2.5) reflects historical averages, but current form screams “skip.” When form contradicts the model this strongly, we trust the form.
💰 SOLID VALUE: Man Utd vs Wolves — Wolves to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Wolves to Win @ 8.58 (11.7% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 6.33 (15.8% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +35.6% |
| Stake | SKIP |
| Confidence | Very Low — FORM OVERRIDE |
⚠️ Form Override Warning
The maths looks great: 35.6% edge at 8.58 odds. But Wolves have won ZERO games all season. They’re 0W-2D-16L with 2 points from 17 matches — the worst start in Premier League history. Form rating 3.5/10, -55 ELO over 10 games. They’re broken.
Yes, the model says they should win 15.8% of Band 5 fixtures. But “should” and “will” are different things for a team this dysfunctional. I’m not backing a winless team at any price until they show signs of life. Skip.
🚫 Bets to Avoid
| Match | Bet | Odds | Why Avoid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs Villa | Arsenal Win | 1.47 | Band 2 stronger home team wins 52.8% after adjustment. At 1.47 (68.0% implied), this is -22.4% EV. Market is sleeping on Villa’s form. |
| Liverpool vs Leeds | Liverpool Win | 1.51 | Band 5 stronger home team wins 72.2% after adjustment. At 1.51 (66.2% implied), this is +9.0% EV — close, but Liverpool are missing Salah at AFCON. Not enough edge with their main threat gone. |
| Man Utd vs Wolves | Man Utd Win | 1.33 | Band 5 stronger home team wins 72.2%. At 1.33 (75.2% implied), this is -4.0% EV. United are correctly priced; no value on the favourite. |
| Sunderland vs Man City | Man City Win | 1.43 | Band 5 stronger team wins 63.1% after away adjustment. At 1.43 (69.9% implied), this is -9.7% EV. City are overpriced despite their form. |
💼 Portfolio Summary
| Bet | Odds | Stake | EV% | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Villa Win @ Arsenal | 6.72 | 2.4% | +73.4% | Premium (Quarter-Kelly) |
| 🔥 Sunderland Win vs Man City | 7.08 | 1.0% | +47.3% | Premium (Quarter-Kelly) |
| 💎 BTTS Yes Arsenal/Villa | 2.04 | 1.9% | +13.9% | Value (Quarter-Kelly) |
| 💎 Bournemouth Win @ Chelsea | 5.64 | 1.4% | +25.2% | Value (Quarter-Kelly) |
| 💎 Under 2.5 Chelsea/Bournemouth | 2.39 | 1.4% | +15.1% | Value (Quarter-Kelly) |
| 💎 Fulham Win @ Palace | 3.39 | 1.4% | +15.3% | Value (Quarter-Kelly) |
| TOTAL | - | 9.5% | +31.2% avg | - |
🧮 Total Bankroll Staked: 9.5% 💰 Portfolio EV: +31.2% (weighted average) ⚖️ Risk Level: Moderate 🧭 Strategy: Two premium longshots (Villa, Sunderland) anchor the portfolio with enormous edge. Four value plays on BTTS, goals markets, and away teams provide diversification. We’ve skipped two “model +EV” plays (Forest/Everton O2.5, Wolves Win) due to form overrides.
Note: We’re under the 15% cap with room to spare. The form override skips saved us from questionable bets.
🎯 Super 6 Predictions
For the Sky Sports Super 6 jackpot game — optimizing for exact correct score (5 points) over result (2 points)
| Match | Prediction | Confidence | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Bournemouth | 1-0 | Medium | Low-scoring affair; Chelsea’s quality at home edges it despite poor form. |
| West Ham vs Brighton | 1-1 | Medium | Band 2 fixture, both struggling. Draw most likely single outcome. |
| Burnley vs Newcastle | 0-2 | High | Newcastle’s quality tells; Burnley can’t score (1.0 GF L10). |
| Forest vs Everton | 1-0 | Medium | Goal-shy fixture; home advantage edges it for Forest. |
| Arsenal vs Villa | 1-2 | High | Aligns with our betting thesis. Villa’s form is undeniable. |
| Man Utd vs Wolves | 2-0 | High | United’s quality; Wolves can’t score (0.5 GF L10) or defend. |
Super 6 Strategy Note: These predictions prioritize the single most likely exact score (typically 10-18% probability), not betting value. Different goals, different strategies.
📊 £100 Challenge Tracker
Week 2 of the £100→£1000 challenge. Full transparency on every bet, every result.
| Week | Starting | Bets | Wins | Stake | P/L | Ending | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MW18 | £100.00 | 6 | 2 | £16.00 | +£2.71 | £103.49 | +22.2% |
| MW19 | £103.49* | 6 | - | £10.00 | - | - | - |
| Cumulative | - | 12 | 2 | £26.00 | +£3.49 | £103.49 | +3.5% |
Current Bankroll: £103.49 Target: £1,000.00 Progress: 0.35%
Final Thoughts
The value this week screams Villa — and I’ve been banging this drum for weeks. The bookies continue to price Arsenal as heavy favourites despite Villa’s 11-game winning streak, despite Villa beating Arsenal 2-1 at Villa Park earlier this season, despite Villa sitting just 3 points behind Arsenal in the table. At 6.72, we’re getting massive overlay on the form team of Europe facing an injury-hit Arsenal side that needed a 90+4’ Saka goal to beat Brighton at home.
The Sunderland play is our speculative swing. Man City are in incredible form, but Sunderland are unbeaten at home and the model says 20% win probability vs 14% implied. That’s real edge, even against the best. We’re sizing it appropriately — quarter-Kelly — because City are City.
The form overrides on Forest/Everton Over 2.5 and Wolves Win are important. The model is a guide, not a god. When two teams average 0.8 and 1.3 goals respectively, backing Over 2.5 at any price is foolish. When a team is 0-2-16, backing them to win is hopium. We trust the data, but we also trust our eyes.
AFCON continues to create chaos. Liverpool are without Salah — their best player by a distance. Fulham are missing Bassey, Iwobi, and Chukwueze. Sunderland have lost five players but they’re fringe options. The teams unaffected (Arsenal, Chelsea, Villa, Man City) have a structural advantage.
Total Bankroll Exposure: 9.5% Expected Profit: +3.0% at these edge levels
Trust the process. The edge compounds. Happy New Year — let’s make it profitable.
All probabilities calculated using 5+ seasons of Premier League data (2,003 matches). ELO bands updated weekly.
Don’t be an idiot. In case you’re feeling like being an idiot today, here is a page wherein I tell you not to gamble your mortgage away. Hey, that rhymes.
Odds correct at time of writing