Matchweek 16
🧠 This Week’s Best Bets
TL;DR: A loaded weekend delivers thirteen +EV opportunities as bookmakers continue to misprice form divergence across the league. Liverpool’s crisis deepens after a chaotic 3-3 draw with Leeds saw Salah claim he’s been “thrown under the bus,” while Villa’s 95th-minute winner against Arsenal proved our model right even when the result went against us.
The standout plays are Everton to Win @ Chelsea (+47.9% EV) and Bournemouth to Win @ Man Utd (+40.1% EV) — both Band 1/2 fixtures where the market has drastically overpriced the home sides. We’re also loading up on Villa, Brentford, and Spurs as conviction plays.
💰 Total Portfolio EV: +12.4% (weighted average) 📊 Bankroll Stake: 25.8% ⚡ Summary: Away teams and underdogs dominate this week’s value. Three half-Kelly conviction plays anchor the portfolio, with ten quarter-Kelly selections providing diversification. One longshot on Wolves adds lottery ticket upside.
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📊 Matchweek 15 Review
A frustrating week that demonstrated both the model’s accuracy and the cruelty of football timing.
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Result | Score | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal @ Villa | 1.98 | 4.7% | ❌ LOST | Villa 2-1 (95th min) | -4.7 |
| Chelsea @ Bournemouth | 2.20 | 5.2% | ❌ LOST | 0-0 draw | -5.2 |
| Man Utd @ Wolves | 1.80 | 5.9% | ✅ WON | 4-1 | +4.7 |
| Newcastle/Burnley BTTS | 2.06 | 3.5% | ✅ WON | 2-1 (late pen) | +3.7 |
| TOTAL | - | 19.3% | 2/4 | - | -1.5 units |
The Villa 2-1 Arsenal result was a dagger. Trossard equalised on 52 minutes after Cash’s opener, and we looked set for at least a point until Emiliano Buendía — fresh from hobbling off against Man City on crutches six weeks ago — popped up in the 95th minute to break Arsenal hearts. The model had Villa as a +EV play at 3.24 in Matchweek 14 (which we took and won), and their form rating of 7.1/10 has been vindicated spectacularly. They’ve now won 7 of their last 8 league games.
Chelsea 0-0 Bournemouth was painful in a different way. A match of zero quality where our ELO-stronger away team simply couldn’t break down a Bournemouth side missing both senior strikers. Cole Palmer remains short of fitness, and Maresca’s rotation continues to frustrate.
The positives: Man United’s 4-1 demolition of Wolves was comprehensive. Bruno Fernandes scored twice (including a penalty), Mbeumo and Mount added to the rout, and Wolves’ historic crisis deepened — they’re now bottom with just 2 points from 15 games. Our BTTS at Newcastle also landed courtesy of Zian Flemming’s 94th-minute penalty after VAR spotted a Jacob Ramsey handball.
Elsewhere in the league, Leeds held Liverpool to a remarkable 3-3 draw at Elland Road. Hugo Ekitike’s brace and Szoboszlai’s goal weren’t enough as Calvert-Lewin (penalty), Stach, and Tanaka (90+6’) completed a stunning comeback. Post-match, Mohamed Salah dropped a bombshell interview claiming he’d been “thrown under the bus” by the club over contract negotiations. Liverpool’s title defence is now in complete tatters — 5 defeats in 6 league games before this draw, 8 points behind Arsenal.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Chelsea vs Everton — Everton to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Everton to Win @ 5.32 (18.80% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 3.60 (27.79% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +47.9% |
| Stake | 3.4% bankroll (Half-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 2 fixture with an 80-point ELO gap (Chelsea 1904 vs Everton 1824). In Band 2 fixtures across 421 matches, the weaker away team wins 27.79% of the time. Bookmakers have Everton at just 18.80% implied — that’s a staggering 48% edge.
📈 The Model Says
Band 2 (ELO diff 51-100) across 421 matches:
- P(Weaker Away Team Wins) = 0.2779
- Fair odds = 1 / 0.2779 = 3.60
- Bookmaker offering 5.32 = +47.9% EV
⚽ Form Context
Here’s where it gets interesting. The ELO ratings tell one story, but the form data tells another entirely.
Everton’s form rating is 7.1/10 — one of the best in the league. They’ve gained +21 ELO over their last 5 games and just hammered Nottingham Forest 3-0 at home. Thierno Barry finally got off the mark, Dewsbury-Hall is back from suspension and pulling strings, and Iliman Ndiaye is in excellent form. David Moyes has steadied the ship since returning.
Chelsea, by contrast, sit at just 4.3/10 form rating with -6 ELO over 10 games. They were held to a drab 0-0 by Bournemouth, lost 3-1 at Leeds (a genuine shock), and Cole Palmer’s ongoing injury struggles have blunted their creative threat. The Stamford Bridge crowd is restless, and Maresca’s rotation policy continues to baffle.
This is a classic case where the market is pricing the fixture based on reputation rather than current reality. Chelsea at home sounds intimidating. Everton away sounds like cannon fodder. But the form divergence is screaming value.
🏥 Team News
Chelsea have Romeo Lavia (quad) out until January, Levi Colwill (ACL) is a season-long absence, and Cole Palmer remains a doubt after his groin/toe issues. Everton are without Jarrad Branthwaite (hamstring surgery, January return) and Nathan Patterson (foot), but the core XI is available and in form.
💼 Portfolio Play
This is one of our three Half-Kelly conviction plays. The form divergence is too stark to ignore — we’re getting nearly 50% edge on a team that’s genuinely playing well.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Man Utd vs Bournemouth — Bournemouth to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Bournemouth to Win @ 3.81 (26.25% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.72 (36.77% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +40.1% |
| Stake | 2.6% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 1 fixture — the ELO gap is just 36 points (Man Utd 1842 vs Bournemouth 1806). These are essentially evenly-matched teams on underlying quality. In Band 1 fixtures across 427 matches, the weaker away team wins 36.77% of the time. At 3.81 odds (26.25% implied), we’re getting massive value.
📈 The Model Says
Band 1 (ELO diff 0-50) across 427 matches:
- P(Weaker Away Team Wins) = 0.3677
- Fair odds = 1 / 0.3677 = 2.72
- Bookmaker offering 3.81 = +40.1% EV
⚽ Form Context
This is where the narrative gets tricky. Man United just thumped Wolves 4-1 on Monday night, Bruno Fernandes scored twice, and Old Trafford is buzzing about Amorim’s project. The temptation is to pile on the home side.
But let’s look deeper. That was Wolves — the worst team in Premier League history at this stage of a season. Beating them 4-1 is expected, not exceptional. Before that, United drew 1-1 with West Ham at home (conceding an 83rd-minute equaliser from a corner) and 2-2 with both Spurs and Forest. Amorim’s record is unbeaten in 5, yes, but that’s 3W-2D against moderate opposition.
Bournemouth’s form has dipped (2.6/10 rating, -15 ELO over 10 games), and they’re missing both Ünal (ACL) and Evanilson (fractured metatarsal). But they’ve shown they can hurt the big sides — they beat Arsenal 2-0 and Man City 2-1 earlier this season. Antoine Semenyo is in excellent form with 6 goals, and Iraola’s pressing system causes problems.
Old Trafford on a Monday night against a depleted Bournemouth looks like a banker. The model says it’s anything but.
🏥 Team News
Man United have Benjamin Sesko (knee) and Harry Maguire (hamstring) both doubtful, with Lisandro Martinez (ACL recovery) potentially available. Bournemouth’s striker crisis continues with Ünal and Evanilson both long-term, and Tyler Adams is suspended after picking up his 5th yellow.
💼 Portfolio Play
Quarter-Kelly stake here despite the high EV — Bournemouth’s declining form (2.6/10) and striker absences temper our conviction slightly. But 40% edge is 40% edge.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Nottingham Forest vs Spurs — Spurs to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Spurs to Win @ 2.77 (36.10% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.18 (45.84% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +27.0% |
| Stake | 2.9% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Spurs hold a 60-point ELO advantage over Forest, placing this in Band 2 (51-100 difference). In Band 2 fixtures, the stronger team wins 45.84% of the time. At 2.77 odds (36.10% implied), we’re getting nearly 27% edge on the ELO-superior side.
📈 The Model Says
Band 2 (ELO diff 51-100) across 421 matches:
- P(Stronger Team Wins) = 0.4584
- Fair odds = 1 / 0.4584 = 2.18
- Bookmaker offering 2.77 = +27.0% EV
⚽ Form Context
The market is overreacting to narratives on both sides here.
Forest’s form rating of 7.0/10 is genuinely impressive — Sean Dyche has galvanised this squad since taking over as their third manager of the season. They beat Liverpool 3-0 at Anfield and Leeds 3-1 recently. But they just got thumped 3-0 by Everton, and their underlying numbers (0.9 goals per game over last 10) suggest they’re riding variance rather than genuine quality.
Spurs, meanwhile, have a dismal home record (5 points from 6 games, fans booing) but are actually excellent away — 13 points from 5 games (4W-1D-0L). Their form rating of 4.7/10 is modest, but the away/home split is crucial. At the City Ground, they’re the “away” team, which is exactly where they perform.
Yes, Spurs have a massive injury crisis (Maddison, Solanke, Kulusevski, Bissouma all out), and Bentancur is serving a 7-match ban. But 2.77 for the ELO-stronger side in a Band 2 fixture is simply too generous.
🏥 Team News
Forest have Douglas Luiz (hamstring) and Zinchenko (groin) doubtful, but Chris Wood and Hudson-Odoi should be available. Spurs’ injury list is brutal — James Maddison (ACL, season), Dominic Solanke (ankle, late December), Dejan Kulusevski (knee, early 2026), Yves Bissouma (ankle surgery). Randal Kolo Muani (knock) is doubtful.
💼 Portfolio Play
Quarter-Kelly stake. High EV but Spurs’ injury crisis and Forest’s home form under Dyche introduce variance.
💎 VALUE PLAY: West Ham vs Aston Villa — Villa to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Villa to Win @ 1.99 (50.25% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.70 (58.87% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +17.1% |
| Stake | 5.2% bankroll (Half-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Villa’s 155-point ELO advantage over West Ham places this firmly in Band 4 (151-200 difference). In Band 4 fixtures across 265 matches, the stronger team wins 58.87% of the time. At 1.99 odds (50.25% implied), we’re getting 17% edge on the form team of the league.
⚽ Form Context
Villa are absolutely flying. Form rating 7.1/10, ELO change of +50 over 10 games (the biggest positive swing in the league), and they’ve won 7 of their last 8 Premier League matches. That includes beating Man City 1-0 at home, Liverpool 2-0 at Anfield, and Arsenal 2-1 with a 95th-minute Buendía winner. Ollie Watkins has broken his 11-game goal drought with a brace against Brighton.
West Ham are in the midst of a Nuno bounce — they beat Newcastle 3-1 and Burnley 3-2 — but they drew 1-1 with Brighton and 1-1 with Man United in their last two. Their form rating of 5.9/10 is respectable but nowhere near Villa’s level.
At nearly evens (1.99), Villa represent excellent value. This should be closer to 1.70.
🏥 Team News
Villa have Tyrone Mings (hamstring, January), Tielemans (lower leg), and Onana (hamstring) as concerns, but Kamara is fit and Buendía is clearly match-sharp after that winner. West Ham are missing Aaron Wan-Bissaka (abdominal) and have Tomáš Souček suspended.
💼 Portfolio Play
This is our second Half-Kelly conviction play. Villa’s form is undeniable, and 1.99 is a gift.
💎 VALUE PLAY: Brentford vs Leeds — Brentford to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Brentford to Win @ 1.95 (51.28% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.70 (58.87% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +14.8% |
| Stake | 4.5% bankroll (Half-Kelly) |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
Brentford’s 151-point ELO advantage over Leeds places this in Band 4 (151-200 difference). The stronger team wins 58.87% of the time in these fixtures. At 1.95 odds (51.28% implied), we’re getting nearly 15% edge.
⚽ Form Context
Igor Thiago is finally fit and firing. The Belgian striker, signed to replace Ivan Toney, had been plagued by a joint infection that delayed his debut for months. He’s now scored twice against Burnley and looks sharp. With Thiago leading the line, Brentford have genuine firepower.
Leeds are riding high after their remarkable 3-3 draw with Liverpool, but let’s be clear — that was at Elland Road with a raucous crowd willing them on. Away from home, they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 on the road. Daniel Farke remains under pressure despite the Liverpool result, and they sit 18th, just 1 point above the drop zone.
Thomas Frank’s Brentford are notoriously strong at the Gtech Community Stadium. This should be a comfortable home win.
🏥 Team News
Brentford have Rico Henry, Aaron Hickey, Josh Dasilva, and Kristoffer Ajer all out for the season with various knee/hamstring injuries. But crucially, Igor Thiago is fit. Leeds have Dominic Calvert-Lewin (calf/adductor) as a doubt — he scored the penalty against Liverpool but fitness is touch-and-go. Daniel James (hamstring) is out until February.
💼 Portfolio Play
Our third Half-Kelly conviction play. Brentford at home with Thiago fit, against a Leeds side with dreadful away form, at 1.95 is too good to pass up.
💎 VALUE PLAY: Liverpool vs Brighton — Brighton to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Brighton to Win @ 4.48 (22.32% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 3.60 (27.79% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +24.5% |
| Stake | 1.5% bankroll (Quarter-Kelly) |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
This is a Band 2 fixture with an 87-point ELO gap (Liverpool 1953 vs Brighton 1866). In Band 2 fixtures, the weaker away team wins 27.79% of the time. At 4.48 odds (22.32% implied), we’re getting 24.5% edge.
⚽ Form Context
Liverpool are in crisis. There’s no other word for it.
Their form rating of 2.4/10 is the worst in the league. They’ve lost -72 ELO over 10 games — a catastrophic collapse. Before the Leeds draw, they’d lost 5 of their last 6 league games. Salah’s post-match interview, claiming he’d been “thrown under the bus” by the club over contract talks, has added off-field chaos to on-field dysfunction. Arne Slot looked shell-shocked at Elland Road.
Brighton, by contrast, are stable. Form rating 5.2/10, +23 ELO over 10 games, and they’ve shown they can compete with anyone. They lost 4-3 to Villa in a thriller but beat Forest 2-0 and Leeds 3-0 earlier.
Anfield is no longer the fortress it was. Brighton have the quality to exploit a team that’s lost all confidence.
🏥 Team News
Liverpool have Jeremie Frimpong (hamstring) close to return, and Alisson is back from his hamstring issue. But the problems aren’t physical — they’re mental. Brighton are missing Adam Webster (knee, January) and Kaoru Mitoma (ankle, late December), but the core is available.
💼 Portfolio Play
Quarter-Kelly stake — the model says value, but backing against Liverpool at Anfield still requires courage. We also have a small stake on Under 2.5 and Draw in this match for portfolio diversification.
💰 SOLID VALUE: Arsenal vs Wolves — Multiple Markets
We have three plays on this fixture given the extreme ELO gap (364 points, Band 8):
| Bet | Odds | Model % | EV% | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎰 Wolves to Win | 20.0 | 14.29% | +185.8% | 0.4% |
| 💎 BTTS Yes | 2.52 | 45.71% | +15.2% | 1.2% |
| 💰 Draw | 7.78 | 14.29% | +11.2% | 0.4% |
🧩 Why These Have Value
In Band 8 fixtures (351-400 ELO gap), the historical data shows:
- Stronger team wins: 71.43%
- Draw: 14.29%
- Weaker team wins: 14.29%
- BTTS: 45.71%
The bookmakers have priced Arsenal at 1.14 (87.72% implied) — that’s way over the 71.43% historical rate. The value flows to the other outcomes.
Wolves at 20.0 is our lottery ticket. Yes, they’re historically bad (2 points from 15 games), but 14.29% true probability vs 5% implied is a 186% edge. You only need this to hit once every 7 attempts at these odds to profit.
BTTS at 2.52 offers solid value. Even against the worst teams, goals happen at both ends 46% of the time in these fixtures. Wolves have occasionally threatened (they scored against United before losing 4-1), and at plus-money, this is worth a small play.
Draw at 7.78 is similar logic — 14.29% true probability vs 12.85% implied gives us 11% edge.
💼 Portfolio Note
These are small stakes (2.0% combined) on a single fixture. The Wolves Win and Draw are mutually exclusive, so we can’t win both — but both are independently +EV. BTTS can hit with any result.
💰 SOLID VALUE: Goals Markets
| Match | Bet | Odds | Model % | EV% | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool vs Brighton | Under 2.5 | 2.37 | 46.56% | +10.4% | 1.0% |
| Brentford vs Leeds | Over 2.5 | 1.87 | 58.11% | +8.7% | 1.3% |
| Man Utd vs Bournemouth | Under 2.5 | 2.39 | 45.43% | +8.6% | 0.9% |
| Liverpool vs Brighton | Draw | 4.03 | 26.37% | +6.3% | 0.5% |
Quick Notes:
Under 2.5 Liverpool/Brighton (1.0%): Liverpool are struggling to score (1.3 GF over last 10), Brighton are solid defensively. Band 2 Under 2.5 hits 46.56% historically — at 2.37 odds, there’s +10% edge.
Over 2.5 Brentford/Leeds (1.3%): Band 4 fixtures see Over 2.5 land 58.11% of the time. Both teams are attack-minded, and Leeds’ defence has been porous away (2.2 GA per game). At 1.87, we’re getting +8.7% edge.
Under 2.5 Man Utd/Bournemouth (0.9%): Band 1 Under 2.5 hits 45.43%. Bournemouth have no strikers, United’s home form is inconsistent. At 2.39, there’s +8.6% edge.
Draw Liverpool/Brighton (0.5%): Small diversification play on a fixture where Liverpool’s crisis could produce any result.
🚫 Bets to Avoid
| Match | Bet | Odds | Why Avoid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs Wolves | Arsenal Win | 1.14 | Band 8 stronger team wins 71.43%. At 1.14 (87.72% implied), this is -18.6% EV. The market has massively overpriced Arsenal. |
| Liverpool vs Brighton | Liverpool Win | 1.68 | Band 2 stronger home team wins 45.84%. At 1.68 (59.52% implied), this is -23.0% EV. Liverpool's crisis is real but the odds still don't reflect it. |
| Chelsea vs Everton | Chelsea Win | 1.61 | Band 2 stronger home team wins 45.84%. At 1.61 (62.11% implied), this is -26.2% EV. Huge negative value on Chelsea. |
| Sunderland vs Newcastle | Newcastle Win | 2.16 | Band 2 stronger team wins 45.84%. At 2.16 (46.30% implied), this is essentially -1.0% EV. Fairly priced — no edge either way in the derby. |
💼 Portfolio Summary
| Bet | Odds | Stake | EV% | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Everton Win @ Chelsea | 5.32 | 3.4% | +47.9% | Premium (Half-Kelly) |
| 🔥 Bournemouth Win @ Man Utd | 3.81 | 2.6% | +40.1% | Premium |
| 🔥 Spurs Win @ Forest | 2.77 | 2.9% | +27.0% | Premium |
| 💎 Brighton Win @ Liverpool | 4.48 | 1.5% | +24.5% | Value |
| 💎 Villa Win @ West Ham | 1.99 | 5.2% | +17.1% | Value (Half-Kelly) |
| 💎 BTTS Yes Arsenal/Wolves | 2.52 | 1.2% | +15.2% | Value |
| 💎 Brentford Win vs Leeds | 1.95 | 4.5% | +14.8% | Value (Half-Kelly) |
| 💰 Draw Arsenal/Wolves | 7.78 | 0.4% | +11.2% | Solid |
| 💰 Under 2.5 Liverpool/Brighton | 2.37 | 1.0% | +10.4% | Solid |
| 💰 Over 2.5 Brentford/Leeds | 1.87 | 1.3% | +8.7% | Solid |
| 💰 Under 2.5 Man Utd/Bournemouth | 2.39 | 0.9% | +8.6% | Solid |
| 💰 Draw Liverpool/Brighton | 4.03 | 0.5% | +6.3% | Solid |
| 🎰 Wolves Win @ Arsenal | 20.0 | 0.4% | +185.8% | Longshot |
🧮 Total Bankroll Staked: 25.8% 💰 Portfolio EV: +12.4% (weighted average) ⚖️ Risk Level: Moderate-High 🧭 Strategy: Three Half-Kelly conviction plays (Everton, Villa, Brentford) anchor the portfolio at 13.1% combined. Ten Quarter-Kelly selections provide diversification across multiple fixtures and markets.
🧠 Strategy Notes
This is our most contrarian portfolio of the season. We’re backing away teams and underdogs across the board because that’s where the model is finding edge.
The three conviction plays — Everton, Villa, and Brentford — share a common theme: form divergence from ELO position. Everton’s 7.1/10 form rating doesn’t match their 12th-place ELO ranking. Villa’s +50 ELO momentum isn’t fully reflected in their odds. Brentford with Igor Thiago fit are a different proposition to the injury-ravaged squad of October.
Liverpool’s crisis creates multiple opportunities. We’re taking Brighton to Win (1.5%), Under 2.5 (1.0%), and Draw (0.5%) — diversified exposure to a fixture where the reigning champions look vulnerable. The Salah drama adds uncertainty; Slot’s post-match demeanour suggested a man at the end of his tether.
The Wolves longshot is our lottery ticket. At 20.0 with a 14.29% true probability, we’re getting enormous overlay. Will it hit? Probably not. But positive expected value is positive expected value, and over hundreds of bets, these add up.
Correlation note: We have partially correlated positions in Liverpool/Brighton (Brighton Win + Under 2.5 + Draw) and Brentford/Leeds (Brentford Win + Over 2.5). Both pairs can co-exist but represent concentrated exposure. We’ve sized accordingly.
The bets to avoid section is crucial this week. Arsenal at 1.14 against Wolves looks like free money — it’s actually -18.6% EV. Same with Liverpool at 1.68 and Chelsea at 1.61. The bookmakers have priced these heavy favourites based on reputation, not the underlying ELO band probabilities. Don’t get sucked in.
Remember: last week’s -1.5 units was a shame, but the week before we ran +7 units and locked in 5/7 games; if you’re not playing the long game then you’re gambling.
The edge is real. Trust the process.
Don’t be an idiot. In case you’re feeling like being an idiot today, here is a page wherein I tell you not to gamble your mortgage away. Hey, that rhymes.
Odds correct at time of writing