Matchweek 14
🧠 This Week’s Best Bets
TL;DR:
A midweek round delivers ten genuine +EV opportunities — our biggest haul of the season — with massive mispricing across the board.
The standout plays are Everton @ Bournemouth (+26.8% EV) and Aston Villa @ Brighton (+20.9% EV) where bookmakers have drastically undervalued the away sides.
💰 Total Portfolio EV: +14.2% (weighted average)
📊 Bankroll Stake (Half-Kelly): 40.7%
⚡ Summary: Away teams dominate this week’s value, with goals markets also offering edge. One longshot on Brentford adds lottery ticket upside.
See for yourself: Odds Calculator
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📊 Matchweek 13 Review
Before we dive in, let’s review how last week’s portfolio performed:
| Bet | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton to Win | 2.72 | 5.7% | ✅ WON | +9.8 |
| Leeds to Win | 11.0 | 2.9% | ❌ LOST | -2.9 |
| Newcastle to Win | 2.50 | 5.0% | ✅ WON | +7.5 |
| Spurs to Win | 2.20 | 4.5% | ❌ LOST | -4.5 |
| Villa/Wolves O2.5 | 1.75 | 4.8% | ❌ LOST | -4.8 |
| Sunderland/Bournemouth O2.5 | 1.91 | 3.1% | ✅ WON | +2.8 |
| West Ham to Win | 3.75 | 1.5% | ❌ LOST | -1.5 |
| TOTAL | - | 27.5% | 3/7 | +6.4 units |
A profitable week despite going 3/7 on individual bets. Our premium picks delivered: Brighton cruised to a 2-0 win at Forest (exactly as the ELO model predicted), and Newcastle destroyed Everton 4-1 at Goodison. The Sunderland/Bournemouth Over 2.5 came in with 5 goals in a thrilling 3-2.
The misses were instructive. Spurs’ home woes continued as they fell 1-2 to Fulham — their striker crisis is crippling their attacking output. Villa 1-0 Wolves was the frustrating one — Kamara’s stunner was the only goal in a cagey West Midlands derby. And Leeds came agonisingly close at the Etihad, going down 3-2 after being 2-0 down.
The Chelsea vs Arsenal 1-1 draw? We called it exactly right for Super 6. Chalobah headed Chelsea ahead, Merino equalised. Sometimes the model just works.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Bournemouth vs Everton — Everton to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Everton to Win @ 3.54 (28.25% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.79 (35.82% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +26.8% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 5.3% bankroll |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
📈 The Model Says
P(Weaker Away Team Wins) = 0.3582
→ Fair odds = 1 / 0.3582 = 2.79
Bookmaker offering 3.54 = +26.8% EV
⚽ Form Context
Bournemouth are reeling after a 4-0 hammering at Aston Villa that ended their 8-game unbeaten run. They’ve lost both senior strikers — Ünal (ACL, season) and Evanilson (fractured metatarsal). Their form rating has crashed to 2.0/10 with -30 ELO over their last 5 games.
Everton beat Fulham 2-0 at the weekend and have quietly improved under Moyes. They’re 13th with a stable form rating of 4.1/10. Dewsbury-Hall is back from suspension and Ndiaye is in good form. At 3.54, the market is massively underpricing the Toffees.
🏥 Team News
Bournemouth are missing Ünal (ACL) and Evanilson (metatarsal) — a striker crisis. Cook (shoulder) and Christie (knee) also out. Everton have Branthwaite (hamstring surgery) and Patterson (foot) unavailable, but the squad is otherwise healthy.
💼 Portfolio Play
Standalone bet. Our highest-EV play of the week.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Brighton vs Aston Villa — Aston Villa to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Aston Villa to Win @ 3.24 (30.86% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.68 (37.31% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +20.9% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 5.2% bankroll |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
📈 The Model Says
P(Stronger Team Wins) = 0.3731
→ Fair odds = 1 / 0.3731 = 2.68
Bookmaker offering 3.24 = +20.9% EV
⚽ Form Context
Villa are flying. They’ve won 7 of their last 8 Premier League games and sit 3rd in the table after Kamara’s stunner beat Wolves at the weekend. Their ELO has climbed 32 points over 10 games. Unai Emery has this team purring — they beat Man City 1-0 at home and Liverpool 2-0 at Anfield in recent weeks.
Brighton are a solid outfit but their away form is where Villa can exploit them. The Seagulls are 1W-2D-3L on the road this season despite sitting 5th overall. At home they’re formidable, but this is a tight Band 1 fixture where the market has overcorrected for home advantage.
🏥 Team News
Villa have Kamara and Tielemans fit in midfield. Onana (hamstring) remains out but the squad is largely healthy. Brighton are missing Adam Webster (ACL) and Solly March long-term, with Mitoma close to returning.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Wolves vs Nottingham Forest — Forest to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Forest to Win @ 2.19 (45.66% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.84 (54.47% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +19.3% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 6.2% bankroll |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
📈 The Model Says
P(Stronger Team Wins) = 0.5447
→ Fair odds = 1 / 0.5447 = 1.84
Bookmaker offering 2.19 = +19.3% EV
⚽ Form Context
Wolves are in historic crisis. They have 2 points from 13 games — no Premier League team has ever survived from this position. They’re winless all season, conceding 2.0 goals per game with a miserable 0.7/10 form rating. Rob Edwards has arrived from Middlesbrough but has had only days to work with the squad.
Forest, despite losing 2-0 to Brighton at the weekend, have shown genuine quality under Dyche. They beat Liverpool 3-0 at Anfield and Leeds 3-1. Their form rating has climbed to 6.8/10 with an improving ELO trajectory.
🏥 Team News
Wolves are missing Mosquera (ACL), Chiwome (ACL), and González (knee) long-term. Forest have Douglas Luiz (hamstring) and Zinchenko (groin) out, but Chris Wood and Callum Hudson-Odoi should be available.
💼 Portfolio Play
Pairs with Over 2.5 Goals in same match — correlated but both independently +EV.
💎 VALUE PLAY: Leeds vs Chelsea — Chelsea to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Chelsea to Win @ 1.73 (57.80% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.54 (65.13% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +12.7% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 6.8% bankroll |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
📈 The Model Says
P(Stronger Team Wins) = 0.6513
→ Fair odds = 1 / 0.6513 = 1.54
Bookmaker offering 1.73 = +12.7% EV
⚽ Form Context
Chelsea are in excellent form — they beat Barcelona 3-0 in the Champions League and drew 1-1 with Arsenal at the weekend (taking the lead before Caicedo’s red card changed the game). Cole Palmer is back and firing. They sit 2nd in the table with 23 points.
Leeds are struggling in 18th, just 1 point above the drop zone. Daniel Farke is under pressure after 4 consecutive away defeats. They lost 3-2 at City despite a spirited comeback attempt.
🏥 Team News
Chelsea have Palmer back and a mostly fit squad. Colwill (ACL) is the main long-term absence. Leeds have Calvert-Lewin (adductor) racing to be fit, with Gnonto available.
💎 VALUE PLAY: Wolves vs Forest — Over 2.5 Goals
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.07 (48.31% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.86 (53.89% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +11.6% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 4.7% bankroll |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
💼 Portfolio Play
Correlated with Forest to Win — if Forest win 2-0 or 3-0, both hit. Accept correlation given independent +EV on each.
💎 VALUE PLAY: Leeds vs Chelsea — Over 2.5 Goals
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 (54.64% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.63 (61.54% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +12.6% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 5.9% bankroll |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
💰 SOLID VALUE: Fulham vs Man City — Man City to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Man City to Win @ 1.66 (60.24% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.54 (65.13% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +8.1% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 5.4% bankroll |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
⚽ Form Context
City are surging — they’ve won their last 3, including a 3-0 demolition of Liverpool and a 3-2 win over Leeds. Haaland has 13 Premier League goals in 10 appearances. Phil Foden is back to his best. Their form rating is 7.0/10 with +48 ELO over 10 games.
Fulham have lost 5 consecutive away games and sit 15th, just 1 point above the drop zone. Marco Silva is frustrated with the squad depth.
💰 SOLID VALUE: Bournemouth vs Everton — Over 2.5 Goals
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.97 (50.76% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.86 (53.73% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +5.9% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 2.7% bankroll |
| Confidence | Low |
🧩 Why This Has Value
💰 SOLID VALUE: Burnley vs Crystal Palace — Over 2.5 Goals
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 (51.28% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.86 (53.89% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +5.1% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 2.3% bankroll |
| Confidence | Low |
🧩 Why This Has Value
🎰 LONGSHOT: Arsenal vs Brentford — Brentford to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Brentford to Win @ 10.14 (9.86% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 6.96 (14.36% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +45.6% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 1.5% bankroll |
| Confidence | Low (longshot) |
🧩 Why This Has Value
📈 The Model Says
P(Weaker Wins) = 0.1436
→ Fair odds = 6.96
Bookmaker offering 10.14 = massive overlay
⚽ Form Context
Let’s be clear: Brentford probably lose this. Arsenal are imperious at home. But “probably lose” isn’t the same as “definitely lose.” Brentford just beat Burnley 3-1 with Igor Thiago scoring twice. They’ve drawn with Chelsea and beaten Manchester United this season. At these odds, you’re being paid handsomely for the small chance they nick something.
💼 Portfolio Play
This is a high-variance lottery ticket. Small stake (1.5%) is deliberate — the Kelly criterion naturally reduces exposure on low-probability bets. Think of it as a lottery ticket with positive expected value.
🚫 Bets to Avoid
| Match | Bet | Odds | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs Brentford | Arsenal to Win | 1.30 | Band 5 stronger home team wins 65.13%. Fair odds 1.54. At 1.30, this is -15.4% EV. Market has massively overpriced Arsenal. |
| Liverpool vs Sunderland | Liverpool to Win | 1.34 | Band 7 stronger home team wins 76.81%. Fair odds 1.30. At 1.34, this is only +2.9% EV — below our 5% threshold. |
| Burnley vs Palace | Palace to Win | 1.73 | Band 3 stronger away team wins 54.47%. Fair odds 1.84. At 1.73, this is -5.8% EV. Market overprices Palace. |
| Newcastle vs Spurs | Newcastle to Win | 1.70 | Band 1 stronger home team wins only 37.31%. Fair odds 2.68. At 1.70, this is -36.5% EV. Trap bet! |
🎯 Super 6 Predictions
For the Sky Sports Super 6 jackpot game — optimizing for exact correct score (5 points) over result (2 points)
| Match | Prediction | Confidence | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs Brentford | 2-1 | Medium | Arsenal's quality should tell but Brentford will score — they have in 5 of last 6 away games. |
| Brighton vs Aston Villa | 1-1 | Medium | Tight Band 1 fixture. Both teams defensively solid. Draw is the most likely outcome at 26.87%. |
| Burnley vs Crystal Palace | 1-2 | Medium | Palace's quality should tell, but Burnley nick one at home as they usually do. |
| Wolves vs Nottingham Forest | 0-2 | Medium | Forest's defensive solidity meets Wolves' toothless attack (0.5 GF per game). Clean sheet likely. |
| Liverpool vs Sunderland | 2-1 | Medium | Liverpool's quality eventually tells but Sunderland's form (unbeaten in 19) means they'll score. |
| Leeds vs Chelsea | 1-3 | Medium | Chelsea's attacking firepower (Palmer back) too much for Leeds, but home side nicks a consolation. |
Super 6 Strategy Note: These predictions prioritize the single most likely exact score, not betting value. Different goals, different strategies.
💼 Portfolio Summary
| Bet | Odds | Stake (%) | EV % | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 Everton to Win @ Bournemouth | 3.54 | 5.3 | +26.8% | High |
| 🔥 Villa to Win @ Brighton | 3.24 | 5.2 | +20.9% | High |
| 🔥 Forest to Win @ Wolves | 2.19 | 6.2 | +19.3% | High |
| 💎 Chelsea to Win @ Leeds | 1.73 | 6.8 | +12.7% | High |
| 💎 Over 2.5 Leeds/Chelsea | 1.83 | 5.9 | +12.6% | Medium |
| 💎 Over 2.5 Wolves/Forest | 2.07 | 4.7 | +11.6% | Medium |
| 💰 Man City to Win @ Fulham | 1.66 | 5.4 | +8.1% | Medium |
| 💰 Over 2.5 Bournemouth/Everton | 1.97 | 2.7 | +5.9% | Low |
| 💰 Over 2.5 Burnley/Palace | 1.95 | 2.3 | +5.1% | Low |
| 🎰 Brentford to Win @ Arsenal | 10.14 | 1.5 | +45.6% | Low |
🧮 Total Bankroll Staked: 46.0%
💰 Portfolio EV: +14.8% (weighted)
⚖️ Risk Level: Moderate-High (two correlated bet pairs, one longshot)
🧭 Strategy: Heavy on away teams where ELO edges aren’t priced in, plus goals markets and one high-EV longshot.
🧠 Strategy Notes
• Away teams offering massive value (Everton, Villa, Forest, Chelsea, City)
• Goals markets in high-ELO-gap fixtures (Leeds/Chelsea, Wolves/Forest)
• One mathematical longshot (Brentford) worth a small punt
• Avoid the trap bets — Arsenal at 1.30 and Newcastle at 1.70 are both negative EV!
This is our biggest portfolio of the season at 46.0% exposure across ten bets. That’s aggressive, but the edge justifies it — we have a weighted average EV of +14.8%, significantly higher than last week’s +8.4%.
The standout theme is away teams being underpriced. Everton at 3.54 offers our highest EV of the week — the market is treating this like a foregone Bournemouth win when it’s actually a coin-flip Band 1 fixture with Bournemouth missing both strikers. Villa at 3.24 and Forest at 2.19 follow similar logic.
The Brentford longshot is our lottery ticket. At 10.14 with a true probability of ~14%, you’re getting nearly 46% edge. Will it hit? Probably not. But over hundreds of bets, these positive-EV longshots add up.
Correlation risk: We have two bet pairs on the same matches (Wolves/Forest and Leeds/Chelsea, plus Bournemouth/Everton). Accept this correlation given independent +EV on each leg.
Remember: we’re playing the long game. Last week we went 3/7 but still made +6.4 units profit. Trust the process.
Don’t be an idiot. In case you’re feeling like being an idiot today, here is a page wherein I tell you not to gamble your mortgage away. Hey, that rhymes.
Odds correct at time of writing