Matchweek 13
🧠 This Week’s Best Bets
TL;DR:
A weekend of contrasts delivers seven genuine +EV opportunities ranging from rock-solid away favorites to a mathematical longshot worth a punt.
Our model has identified significant mispricing on Brighton’s trip to Forest and a monster value play on Leeds at the Etihad.
💰 Total Portfolio EV: +17.1% (weighted average)
📊 Bankroll Stake (Half-Kelly): 28.5%
⚡ Summary: Goals markets and away favorites dominate this week’s value, driven by form collapses at Forest and Newcastle’s away struggles being overlooked.
See for yourself: Odds Calculator
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🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Nottingham Forest vs Brighton — Brighton to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Brighton to Win @ 2.72 (36.76% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.22 (45% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +19.7% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 5.7% bankroll |
| Confidence | High |
🧩 Why This Has Value
📈 The Model Says
P(Stronger Wins) = 0.5033 blended
Adjusted for away: ~0.45
→ Fair odds = 2.22
⚽ Form Context
Forest are in freefall. Their ELO has dropped 51 points over the last 10 games with a miserable 3.4/10 form rating. They’re averaging just 0.7 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game. Three managers this season tells you everything about the chaos at the City Ground. Sean Dyche has steadied the ship slightly with a 3-1 win over Leeds, but one swallow doesn’t make a summer.
Brighton meanwhile sit on +34 ELO over 10 games with a stable 6.2/10 form rating. They’re averaging 1.6 GF and 1.4 GA — a functional, balanced side that should handle Forest’s dysfunction.
🏥 Team News
Forest are missing Douglas Luiz (hamstring) and Zinchenko (groin — more serious than initially thought). Chris Wood and Callum Hudson-Odoi expected back but match fitness uncertain. Brighton have Mitoma (ankle) close to return, with Veltman and Hinshelwood also nearing availability.
💼 Portfolio Play
Standalone bet. No correlation concerns.
🔥 PREMIUM PICK: Man City vs Leeds — Leeds to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Leeds to Win @ 11.0 (9.09% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 7.00 (14.29% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +57.2% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 2.9% bankroll |
| Confidence | Low (longshot) |
🧩 Why This Has Value
📈 The Model Says
P(Weaker Wins) = 0.1429
→ Fair odds = 7.00
Bookmaker offering 11.0 = massive overlay
⚽ Form Context
Let’s be clear: Leeds probably lose this. City are flying with an 8.8/10 form rating and +48 ELO over 10 games. Haaland has 13 goals in 10 appearances. But “probably lose” isn’t the same as “definitely lose.” Leeds have shown fight under Farke and upsets happen. At these odds, you’re being paid handsomely for the small chance they nick something.
💼 Portfolio Play
This is a high-variance longshot. Small stake (2.9%) is deliberate — the Kelly criterion naturally reduces exposure on low-probability bets. Think of it as a lottery ticket with positive expected value.
💎 VALUE PLAY: Everton vs Newcastle — Newcastle to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Newcastle to Win @ 2.50 (40% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 2.22 (45% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +12.5% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 5.0% bankroll |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
📈 The Model Says
→ Fair odds = 2.22
Bookmaker offering 2.50 = value
⚽ Form Context
I’ll be honest — this one comes with caveats. Newcastle’s away form has been poor (4 straight defeats on the road) and they’ve been hit by an illness outbreak affecting Tonali, Murphy, Trippier, and Bruno Guimarães. Dan Burn is suspended after his red card at Brentford.
But Everton aren’t exactly setting the world alight either. They’re 13th with a 10/10 form rating that looks inflated — the underlying numbers show 1.1 GF and 1.2 GA per game. This is a case where the market may be overreacting to Newcastle’s away woes.
🏥 Team News
Newcastle: illness concerns throughout squad, Gordon (hip/groin) and Joelinton (calf) targeting returns, Pope following concussion protocol. Burn suspended. Everton: Branthwaite out indefinitely (hamstring surgery), Patterson still unavailable.
💎 VALUE PLAY: Spurs vs Fulham — Spurs to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Spurs to Win @ 2.20 (45.45% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.99 (50.33% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +10.7% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 4.5% bankroll |
| Confidence | Low |
🧩 Why This Has Value
⚽ Form Context
The maths says value. The injury list says caution. Spurs are without both senior strikers — Kolo Muani (broken jaw, 6-8 weeks) and Solanke (ankle). Maddison is out for the season with an ACL injury. Kulusevski not yet training outdoors. This is a depleted squad.
Fulham have lost 5 consecutive away games but they’re facing a Spurs side that’s been dire at home (only 5 points from 6 home games in 2025). The value is real but confidence is low due to Spurs’ attacking crisis.
💼 Portfolio Play
Consider reducing stake given the injury situation. The model doesn’t capture “both strikers out” — that’s a qualitative factor worth respecting.
💰 SOLID VALUE: Aston Villa vs Wolves — Over 2.5 Goals
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 (57.14% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.62 (61.78% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +8.1% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 4.8% bankroll |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
⚽ Form Context
Wolves are leaking goals — 2.1 conceded per game over their last 10 with a dire 2.2/10 form rating. They’ve dropped 41 ELO points over 10 games. Villa at home should create plenty, even if they’re not quite at their best (1.3 GF per game). Expect Villa to dominate possession and territory, creating the conditions for 3+ goals.
💰 SOLID VALUE: Sunderland vs Bournemouth — Over 2.5 Goals
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 (52.36% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 1.81 (55.32% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +5.7% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 3.1% bankroll |
| Confidence | Medium |
🧩 Why This Has Value
⚽ Form Context
Sunderland are the surprise package of the season — 4th place, unbeaten in 19 matches, with 5 goals scored in the 90th minute or later. They’re dangerous at home and will push for goals. Bournemouth have their own attacking quality despite the striker crisis (Semenyo has 6 goals), but they’re also conceding 1.4 per game. The ingredients are there for an open match.
💰 SOLID VALUE: West Ham vs Liverpool — West Ham to Win
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Bet | West Ham to Win @ 3.75 (26.67% implied) |
| Model Fair Odds | 3.57 (28% probability) |
| Expected Value (EV) | +5.0% |
| Stake (Half-Kelly) | 1.5% bankroll |
| Confidence | Low |
🧩 Why This Has Value
⚽ Form Context
Liverpool’s title defense has imploded. They’re 8th, 8 points behind Arsenal, with a 3.1/10 form rating and -24 ELO over 10 games. West Ham have found some stability under Nuno with back-to-back wins. At 3.75, you’re getting paid for Liverpool’s away fragility.
🚫 Bets to Avoid
| Match | Bet | Odds | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City vs Leeds | Man City to Win | 1.25 | Band 6 stronger team wins 69.84%. Fair odds 1.43. At 1.25, this is -12.7% EV. The public is piling on. |
| West Ham vs Liverpool | Liverpool to Win | 1.67 | Despite ELO superiority, Liverpool's away form (4 straight defeats) and -24 ELO trend suggests fair odds closer to 1.82. -8% EV. |
| Sunderland vs Bournemouth | Bournemouth to Win | 2.30 | The ELO edge is real but Bournemouth are missing both senior strikers (Ünal ACL, Evanilson fractured metatarsal). Can't back a team with no recognized forwards. |
🎯 Super 6 Predictions
For the Sky Sports Super 6 jackpot game — optimizing for exact correct score (5 points) over result (2 points)
| Match | Prediction | Confidence | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City vs Leeds | 3-0 | Medium | City's dominance (Band 6) plus home advantage. Leeds' 2.9 form rating suggests they struggle to score. |
| Sunderland vs Bournemouth | 1-1 | Medium | Sunderland's home fortress meets Bournemouth's striker crisis. Draw is undervalued. |
| Everton vs Newcastle | 1-1 | Medium | Newcastle stronger but 4 straight away defeats. Both teams averaging ~1.1 GF. Low-scoring stalemate. |
| Spurs vs Fulham | 1-0 | Low | Spurs' striker crisis caps attacking output. Should edge it but won't be pretty. |
| West Ham vs Liverpool | 1-2 | Medium | Liverpool's quality eventually tells despite poor form. West Ham nick one at home. |
| Chelsea vs Arsenal | 1-1 | Medium | London derby with Arsenal carrying huge injury list. Palmer potentially back for Chelsea. Cagey affair. |
Super 6 Strategy Note: These predictions prioritize the single most likely exact score, not betting value. Three draws reflects the genuinely tight nature of this weekend’s fixtures.
💼 Portfolio Summary
| Bet | Odds | Stake (%) | EV % | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton to Win | 2.72 | 5.7 | +19.7% | High |
| Leeds to Win | 11.0 | 2.9 | +57.2% | Low |
| Newcastle to Win | 2.50 | 5.0 | +12.5% | Medium |
| Spurs to Win | 2.20 | 4.5 | +10.7% | Low |
| Villa/Wolves Over 2.5 | 1.75 | 4.8 | +8.1% | Medium |
| Sunderland/Bournemouth Over 2.5 | 1.91 | 3.1 | +5.7% | Medium |
| West Ham to Win | 3.75 | 1.5 | +5.0% | Low |
🧮 Total Bankroll Staked: 27.5%
💰 Portfolio EV: +17.1% (weighted)
⚖️ Risk Level: Moderate (diversified across 7 bets, mix of favorites and longshots)
🧭 Strategy: Heavy on away favorites where market undervalues ELO edge, plus goals value in lopsided Band 5 fixtures.
🧠 Strategy Notes
• Away favorites offering value where ELO edges aren't fully priced in
• Goals markets in high-band fixtures (Villa/Wolves, Sunderland/Bournemouth)
• One mathematical longshot (Leeds) worth a small stake
• Injury-driven caution on Spurs and Bournemouth
This weekend’s portfolio is more conservative than last week’s 81.5% exposure. We’re staking 27.5% across seven bets with a weighted average EV of +17.1%. The diversification is deliberate — we’re spreading risk across different match types and markets rather than concentrating on correlated outcomes.
The standout play is Brighton at Forest. The combination of Forest’s form collapse (-51 ELO over 10 games), managerial chaos (third manager this season), and Brighton’s stability makes this our highest-conviction bet. At 2.72, you’re getting excellent odds on what should be the better team winning.
The Leeds longshot deserves a mention. Yes, City will probably batter them. But 11.0 odds for a team that has a genuine 14% historical chance of winning is simply mispriced. Small stake, big potential return, positive expected value. That’s the definition of a good bet.
Remember: we’re playing the long game. Individual weekends will have variance. The edge compounds over hundreds of bets, not individual fixtures. Trust the process.
Don’t be an idiot. In case you’re feeling like being an idiot today, here is a page wherein I tell you not to gamble your mortgage away. Hey, that rhymes.
Odds correct at time of writing